Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[Verge iphone 8 rumours] Face scanning camera ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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[Verge iphone 8 rumours] New design ( 99% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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Я не опоздаю на прыжок к 11:00. (если опоздаем все вместе из-за того, что я встречал Сашу, то не считается) ( 85% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-09-09; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-09-12.
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Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 3 months) ( 10% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-09-11; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-11.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile ( 35% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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I will see a platypus today ( 60% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2017-09-10; known on 2017-09-11; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-09-10.
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The High Court of Australia will rule that the Government's proposal to conduct a postal plebiscite on same sex marriage is an invalid exercise of executive power ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2017-08-15; known on 2017-09-12; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-09-10.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
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I will replace my laptop in 2017. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
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Fox News cuts ties with Eric Bolling ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-05; known on 2018-08-06; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-09.
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I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 5 years. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-07; judged right by gwern on 2017-09-07.
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The company I am interning at will try to hire me. (if they ask me whether I want to work for them and I say no, it still counts) ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-09-07.
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BH will conclude his interview today is from a scam company ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-09-05; known on 2017-09-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-09-07.
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I will finish the math for 3rd year physics by end 2017. This includes linear algebra, group theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations of classical mechanics, Hilbert Spaces, and full and partial differential equations. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2017-09-07.
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Yvain will have more LessWrong karma than me in 5 years. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-04.
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my social media activity will get me fired this summer ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-15; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-01.
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Business, UK – Boots reduces price on a version of Levonelle (including generic or non-branded) to below £20 before the 1st of September 2017. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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Politics, US – Trump issues a pardon for a family member, or a current or previous employee of the US Executive Branch or his campaign, before the start of September 2017. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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Politics, Venezuela – At least one of the Supreme Court justices appointed on the 21st of July 2017 is arrested between then and the start of September 2017. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 74% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-09-01.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-09-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-01.
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s is running an old youtube-dl ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-31; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-01.
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North Korea fires missiles at Guam, at least 1 casualty ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-08-31; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-08-31.
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Draupadi Murmu will be nominated for the presidency by the BJP ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-06-15; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-08-31.
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Dan Malloy is a Dem ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-08-31; known on 2017-08-31; judged right by elephantower on 2017-08-31.
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In the Argentine PASO elections, Cristina Kirchner will obtain more votes in the final vote count than rival Esteben Bullrich, who currently leads the provisional results by 0.07%. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2017-08-20; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-30.
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GoT: Glevba naq Wnvzr ner erirnyrq gb unir orra pbafcvevat gbtrgure. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-07-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-08-28.
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GoT : Fnzjryy Gneyl xvyyrq va frnfba 7 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-08-28.
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I will be admitted to the 2017 Envision Conference ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-13; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-08-28.
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Flooding in texas, at least 1 casualty ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-08-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-27.
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Connor McGregor will lose against Floyd Mayweather ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by liamesteban on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-08-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-08-27.
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Conor McGregor wins against Floyd Mayweather Jr. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by bendini on 2017-08-03; known on 2017-08-27; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-08-27.
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Trump pardons Sheriff Joe Arpaio ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-23; known on 2018-08-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of August 2017 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.
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The company I am interning at will hire Ildar ( 30% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-08-24.
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There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.
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There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.
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Vipul Naik's Wikipedia Content Creation Project gets any amount outside funding within the next 10 years ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-08-23.
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I visit Bay Area this year ( 80% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-08-23.
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User “******” visits Bay Area this year. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-08-23.
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The first time my dad returns home today, he has at least one pair of eclipse glasses ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-19; known on 2017-08-19; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-08-21.
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I will attend Gen Con for at least one day of August 17-20, 2017 ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-08-20.
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ETC forks in relation to https://predictionbook.com/predictions/183982 before ETH ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-20; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-20.
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Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-20.
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If I receive the screen and it works, then during one month of usage I won't get annoyed with its dead pixels (if any). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-08-20.
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The prediction market intrade will still be open for business in 2020. ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
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Will Newsome will publicly endorse http://www.timecube.com/ as the most accurate website ever made. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-06-11; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.