Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Paul Manafort with a crime. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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The final episode of the Israeli TV series Metumtemet (“Dumb”) is coming soon. I predict that either the Ethiopian police officer or her suspended partner will fail to survive. Probably the partner. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by nosnivel on 2017-10-25; known on 2017-10-29; judged wrong by nosnivel on 2017-10-29.
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Nick Beckstead considers EA Global 2017 better executed than EA Global 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-04-01; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-28.
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Politics, EU – Spanish Senate approves proposed plan for elections in Catalonia by the end of 2017-10-27. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-10-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-28.
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I will get at least two A's this term ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by regex on 2017-09-17; known on 2018-01-17; judged wrong by regex on 2017-10-28.
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Las Malvinas to be liberated by Argentina. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-10-27; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-10-27.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 5.5 million on or before January 1, 2018. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-27.
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Catalan independence declaration ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-10; known on 2017-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27.
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I will start working for pay during the next 3 months ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-10-15; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-26.
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On December 1st, 2016 I will have made more money on PredictIt than I spent. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-10-25.
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Esteban Bullrich's Cambiemos will obtain more votes than Cristina Kirchner's Union Ciudadana in the Argentine elections this Sunday, reverting the previous result in the PASO elections. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2017-10-19; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Pablo on 2017-10-24.
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[Bundestagswahl 2017] Linke wird unter den Grünen liegen ( 60% confidence )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.
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[Bundestagswahl 2017] Merkel bleibt Kanzlerin ( 80% confidence )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged right by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.
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[Bundestagswahl 2017] it will end in a GroKo ( 70% confidence )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.
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resource booker updated ( 10% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-24; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-10-24.
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Personal, Productivity – I will do my strength and flexibility exercises on 2017-10-22. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-10-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-22.
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ADN testing will confirm that the body found last Tuesday in Chubut, Argentina is Santiago Maldonado's. ( 68% confidence )
Created by Pablo on 2017-10-19; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by Pablo on 2017-10-22.
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Crime, UK – Suspects arrested in connection to masked men who ransacked house in Robroyston, Glasgow by end of July, and there are media reports of this. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Personal, Business Interactions – I receive a gift card or cash card containing a signup bonus from BT sometime before the end of September 2017. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Politics, Turkey – Turhan Gunay is found guilty of any charge before the start of the 1st of September. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Personal, Business Interactions – I actually have my Internet connection being served by BT before the start of the 1st of September 2017. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-22; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Politics, US – General Sessions Judge Sam Benningfield's standing order such that prisoner's sentences are reduced in exchange for vasectomies is no longer in effect at the start of the 1st of September 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Politics, EU – EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of August 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Business, US – Charles Payne resigns from Fox before the 15th of August 2017. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-08-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Marie turns barbarian as part of a strategy to neutralise Jillian. ( 10% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Bitcoin: trades above 6k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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Bitcoin: trades above 6k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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Bitcoin: trades above 6k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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I am still working at the same company as I was when making this prediction. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-10-20; known on 2017-10-20; judged right by penten on 2017-10-20.
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AlphaGo will win 5-0 against Ke Jie. ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-12-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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Stormfront comes back up ( 49% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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I manage to upgrade to ubuntu 17.10 on my main machine to a booting system including emacs, bitcoin, web browser ( 65% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-05; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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Ubuntu 17.10 comes with version 1.8+ of golang ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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Ubuntu 17.10 released ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-27; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-19.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-19.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-19.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-19.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-19.
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Catalonia “clarifies” one way or the other by 6am spain time thursday ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2017-10-19; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-19.
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Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-12; known on 2017-10-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-17.
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I go to the Digital Identity summit 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-24; known on 2017-10-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-16.
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I go on a weeklong+ road trip by the end of September 2017 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-16; judged right by ioannes on 2017-10-16.
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Trump decertifies Iran nuclear deal ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-11-11; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-10-14.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-19.
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Bitcoin reaches $5000/BTC at some point on Coinbase before 2020 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Afforess on 2017-08-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-13.
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TPP ratified in Canada ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-17.
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On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 4 billion views. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-12.