Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[My MTH445 grade will be] B ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] A ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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Politics, US – Flynn challenges the subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee in court before the end of the 19th of June 2017. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-25.
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Politics, US – Flynn fulfills the requirements of the subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee without challenging it in court before the end of the 19th of June 2017. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-25.
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Начиная с 2017-06-17 по 2017-06-23 20:00 на медузе появится новость, которая скажет, что на кого-то завели уголовное дело по поводу произошедшего на митингах 12 июня ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged right by crabman on 2017-06-24.
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Слава Матюхин увеличит ТУ САМУЮ статью про додзе хотя бы на 100 байт до 2017-06-23 20:00 по Москве ( 25% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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Сборная России выйдет из группы на Кубке Конфедераций ( 40% confidence )
Created by Alaric on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-24; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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Закон об анонимайзерах примут до 2017-06-23 включительно ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-24; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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курс доллара по ЦБ за 2017-06-23 будет отличаться от курса за 2017-06-16 больше, чем на 50 копеек ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged right by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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По истории gismeteo в какой-нибудь момент между 2017-06-16 и 2017-06-22 (включительно и включительно) в Москве будет 25 градусов или выше ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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Я сделаю питч секции про предсказания на рациональном додзе 2017-06-23 ( 35% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-24.
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До четверга включительно я узнаю, что получил смску, где меня вызывают в суд насчет митинга ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-24.
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Minority government in the UK ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-06-09; known on 2017-06-22; judged right by penten on 2017-06-23.
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I will have a new phone in 6 months (current MI3W) ( 40% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-06-22.
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Chalker выложит статью про то, откуда он взял мой пароль, до 2017-07-16 включительно ( 35% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-07-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-06-22.
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Politics, US – 6th District of Georgia is won by a Democrat at the runoff in June. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-22.
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Our car will need to be taken to the garage for a repair at least once in the next 6 months ( 49% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-06-21.
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download time won't go back over 1 min ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-06-20; judged right by elephantower on 2017-06-20.
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Tech – OnePlus 5 launches at a price point above $550 new in the US. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-20.
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Tech – OnePlus 5 launches at a price point above $450 new in the US. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-20.
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JD or I will <REDACTED CODE RFRI> by the end of 20 June ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-20; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20.
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Tech – Arrests made in connection with the the WannaCry ransomware before the 19th of June 2017 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-20.
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Front National will gain 30+ seats in the French legislative election. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
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Front National will not end up in power. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
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today $ACTIVITY_W begins late and I show up early and end up wasting my time ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-18; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-19.
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Politics, US – Representative of the FBI states the FBI investigation into connections between the Trump Campaign and the Russian Government has been closed by the 17th of June 2017. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-06-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-18.
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On 2017-06-18 gismeteo will show that there was rain on 2017-06-17 in Moscow ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-18; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-06-18.
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China’s GDP for 2017-06-17 is at least 50% of sum of GDPs of all countries ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-17.
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В футбольном матче Россия-Новая Зеландия, который должен быть 2017-06-17, Россия победит не позже, чем 2017-06-23 ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-06-17.
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2017-06-16 Слава скажет, что додзе закончилось, до 22-30 включительно ( 30% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-17.
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I will still have the same job, in good standing, by 7pm CT on 16 June ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-06-16; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-17.
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Personal – I find my wallet ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-16; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-17.
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Everything in Amazon delivery will be here tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-17.
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Despacito will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 2 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-17.
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Another major global economic collapse will happen. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by realityriot on 2015-01-14; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-17.
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In 2013, the ratio of anecdotes confirming Seth Roberts's various pet theories published in Roberts's blog, relative to those disconfirming them, will be at least 10 to one. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Pablo on 2017-06-16.
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bet with sam: there are 350-450 calories in a full watermelon ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-06-16; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-06-16.
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Politics, US – The Pentagon is confirmed to have agreed a lease or sublet of an apartment in Trump Tower in New York by a news outlet by the 14th of June 2017. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-15.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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buy machines embodying improved TFP = diminishing marginal returns to capital ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-06-15.
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My tendon will be better in 3 months ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-06-30; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-15.
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Warriors will win NBA championship ( 75% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-06-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-15.
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I will leave work on or before 6:00pm every day this week. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by Mike on 2017-06-14.
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Jeremy Corbyn will remain leader of the Labour party until the next general election ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2015-09-13; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.
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May will preside over an early general election ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-11; known on 2019-11-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.
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JD and I will successfully deliver the contracted work by the 14 June client deadline ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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JD will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least three different nights between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 60% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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I will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least three different nights between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 60% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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I will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least one night between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 85% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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JD will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least one night between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.