Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Catalan independence declaration ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-05; known on 2017-10-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-10.
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bain event invite ( 10% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-10; known on 2017-10-10; judged right by elephantower on 2017-10-10.
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D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2017-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-10-06.
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Quitter comes back online ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-04; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-04.
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Apple will eliminate charging cable ports and headphone jacks by the iPhone 8 release ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-05-17; known on 2017-11-17; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-10-03.
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The US federal government to shut down before October 2nd ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-03.
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The company I am interning at will hire Yaroslav, who is another intern. He seems hardworking. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-02.
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I will decide to pursue a career in biology during the next 2 months #personal ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-09-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-02.
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Trump approval rating < 37% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-02.
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I go to Burning Man 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-02.
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Conditional on LW2.0 being implemented, the changes will cause LW's alexa rank to drop above 100K within 6 months of launch. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2016-02-03; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2017-10-02.
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1.39$/L gas in tbay ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-08; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-02.
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intel 10nm 'tick' release ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-02.
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The iPhone 8 will have a 120hz 'ProMotion' screen ( 50% confidence )
Created by Oliver Carefull on 2017-06-27; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by Oliver Carefull on 2017-10-01.
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The bill titled “The El Chapo Act” will be signed into law by Trump ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Dapple on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2017-10-01.
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Trump approval rating > 39% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-10-01.
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LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus on 2018-10-01.
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by age six months, my baby's eyes will still be blue ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-09-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-09-30.
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by age 6 months, my baby's eyes will be hazel or grey/green ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-09-21; judged right by taryneast on 2017-09-30.
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[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between September 1 and September 30, 2017 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-09-30.
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Tom Price (Thomas Edmunds Price) will not be the Health and Human Services Secretary before the end of 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-29.
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I make the trip today without incident ( 96% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29; known on 2017-09-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29.
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TbG: sebfg qentba ( 57% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-28.
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No paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-27; known on 2017-09-27; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-27.
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someone actually shows up to let me in to work today ( 73% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-10-16; judged right by iCrown on 2017-09-25.
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Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2017-09-25.
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AfD will not end up in power. ( 80% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-09-24.
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Alternative für Deutschland will gain 40+ seats in the German election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-09-24.
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End of the world/Nibiru collides with earth, not including(or at least beginning with) a human-made nuclear weapons catastrophe ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2017-09-24; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-24.
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more storms today in #tbay ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-22; known on 2017-09-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23.
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I will not complain to Uhaul or my insurance company about damage to/theft of the contents of my Uboxes ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-09-22.
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I have a job different from the one I had on 6/25/17. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-09-21; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-09-21.
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My top shared 5 F2 variants from the 1000 genome data will all be from people from Northern European countries. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged right by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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I will spend >30 hours of non-class time analyzing my personal WGS data over the next four months. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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I will regret having my whole genome sequenced in 4 months (self-report). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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My WGS results will inspire me to develop a new habit in the next 4 months, either via a new SR habit flashcard or a new lifestats column. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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I will get further medical testing (confirmatory genetic testing, or lab results) as a result of my WGS results. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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My subjectively objective risk for one or more cancer types will triple as a result of analyzing my WGS results over the next 4 months. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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I will be able to (reasonably consistently) beat AoE2HD AI 1v1 on hardest difficulty setting at any point in 2017 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-09-19.
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at least 1 death at the march tomorrow ( 94% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2017-09-18; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-17.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of September 2017 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-04; known on 2017-10-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-15.
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[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between August 1 and August 31, 2017 ( 25% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-09-14.
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Tech – Amazon announces plans to offers connectivity or phone plans as an add on to Amazon Prime by the end of August 2017. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-09-13.
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Sept 12 Soyuz ISS 52S launches successfully ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-09-19; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-13.
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New flagship OLED iPhone will ship without Touch ID ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-03; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12.
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iPhone X will have a 3.5mm headphone jack ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-09-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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[Verge iphone 8 rumours] Wireless charging ( 89% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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[Verge iphone 8 rumours] $999+ price ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.