Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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SpaceX's Falcon 9 will successfully launch within one week ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-04.
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[This week, I will get] more than 56 hours of sleep ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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[This week, I will get] between 49 and 56 hours of sleep ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged right by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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[This week, I will get] less than 49 hours of sleep ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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June 2017 parents loan payment > $1200 ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-03; known on 2017-06-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-03.
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June 2017 parents loan payment > $999 ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-03; known on 2017-06-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-03.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2016-10-01 and 2017-06-01 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-24; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-06-03.
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Manchester United will win no trophies in the 2016-2017 Season ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2017-06-03.
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Healthcare, UK – Dr Sunil Idicula Simon is struck off, or the process for striking them off is advanced towards a subsequent stage of review, at their hearing on the 2nd of June 2017. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-03.
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Politics, UK – An MP is arrested or charged in connection with an investigation into election expense reporting prior to the next UK General Election. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-02.
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Politics, UK – An MP or an agent of an MP is arrested or charged in connection with an investigation into election expense reporting prior to the next UK General Election. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-02.
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Ariane 5 Flight VA237 will successfully launch within one week ( 60% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-06-02.
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The Against Malaria Foundation would have finished raising $125 million in lifetime money raised as of October 1, 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-10-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 73% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 58% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Insects tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 73% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Mammals tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 51% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Internet protocols tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cognitive biases tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Analytical chemistry tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Korean television shows and series tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 17% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump announces partial but not full withdrawal from the Paris Agreement before the end of June 2017. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump announces full withdrawal from the Paris Agreement before the end of June 2017. ( 50% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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Donald Trump will withdraw, or announce his intention to withdraw, the United States from the Paris Climate accord ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-31; known on 2020-05-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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Today, Donald Trump will withdraw, or announce his intention to withdraw, the United States from the Paris Climate accord ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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More than 10,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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>= 249 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (12450ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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>= 246 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (12300ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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Tech – Google announces that they are adding some form of ad blocking feature to Chrome before the end of May 2017. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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Syria – Further Western strikes occur on Syrian Arab Army targets before the end of May 2017. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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Tech – FaceApp is revealed to send data from USB storage unrelated to its core functionality to the cloud before the end of May 2017. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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LessWrong.ru Slack chat won't move from Slack to another platform until June 2017 ( 80% confidence )
Created by berekuk on 2016-09-30; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by berekuk on 2017-06-01.
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WCCP gets absolutely fucked (damaged so much that it must be abandoned) ( 39% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-06-01.
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Trump announces somewhere that he eventually won the “Muslim ban” court fight ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-02-05; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-06-01.
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The Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by June 1 2017 ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-01.
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I finish Infinite Jest by June 2017 ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-01.
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No military coup / martial law / continuity of government takeover in the U.S before 2017-06-01 ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.
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I will graduate MS ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.
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Politics, US – A bill repealing and/or replacing the ACA passes Congress by the end of May. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.
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First prediction created June 1st 2017 UTC has an ID (see URL) >= 182180 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by penten on 2017-06-01.
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AlphaGo's meltdown in game 4 was not due to flaws in either the value or policy networks. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2017-06-01.
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AlphaGo's meltdown in game 4 was not due to flaws in either the value or policy networks. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2017-06-01.
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On 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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Magic Leap's AR device is available for immediate shipment to the general public before 2017-06-01 ( 40% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-06-01.
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nh legislature democrat-controlled ( 40% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-31; known on 2017-05-31; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-05-31.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – All three remaining Confederacy monuments that Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the end of the 20th of June 2017. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-29.