Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Steem breaks first in test 1. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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Palemoon breaks first in test 1. ( 59% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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Something else breaks in test 1 ( 1% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-22.
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I will get that elective surgery before the end of June. ( 70% confidence )
Created by imaxwell on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by imaxwell on 2017-04-21.
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No snap UK general election held this year. ( 55% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-04-19.
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Russia is found guilty of crimes against humanity at the ICJ ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19.
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Fox News cuts ties with Bill O'Reilly ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-19.
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I will cancel Netflix before my trial ends ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-19.
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terrorist attack in boston on the day of the boston marathon (unsuccessful attempts included) ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-19.
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User “npcuck” will go to Sakura-Con ( 6% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-31; known on 2017-04-17; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-04-17.
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The Turkish constitutional referendum that makes the country a presidential republic will pass. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-03; known on 2017-04-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-04-17.
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“Yes” succeeds in Turkey's referendum ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-17; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-17.
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Second date with J ( 50% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-17.
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Will discuss paperwork with Fib for at least 20 minutes today. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-16.
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Trump executive order on immigration will not be in force on April 15, 2017 in an unmodified form. ( 80% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-04-15.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump has a higher approval rating as of latest polls by Friday the 14th of April than he had on the 5th of April. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-15.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump has a higher approval rating as of latest polls by Friday the 14th of April than he had on the 5th of April. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-15.
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The 8chan board /ratanon/ is back up with or without earlier posts by the end of the 14th of April 2017. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-15.
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Technology – Microsoft implements a block on Windows 7 and/or Windows 8.1 accessing Windows Update while running on the the latest Intel and/or AMD processor architectures before the end of April 2017. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-14.
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Community Project – Rationalist calendar project will have identified at least one of an event or relevant reading for every day of the year before the end of 2017-04-12. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-14.
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Ubuntu 16.10->17.04 upgrade on computer “Hedy” will result in a booting machine, to at least emacs, a web browser with access to the www, and a bitcoin client. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13; known on 2017-04-14; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-13.
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Second date with R ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-13.
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Second date with L ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-13.
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I will visit the storage facility today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-13.
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I will retrieve my passport today. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-13.
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The TDT gambit will work and upon smelling the stains Jess will message me the colour of her パンツ if she is wearing them or “nayki wayki” &c if she is not. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-13.
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I will be able to complete `Move EdiNordstrom orders behind a cutover to new Trading` story within estimate ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Joy on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by Joy on 2017-04-12.
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I will sleep with (meaning we will at least lay next to each other on her bed while we touch each other) Jess within the next two hours. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-12.
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I will kiss Jess within one minute ( 90% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-12.
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3 total announcements by announcement guy in community episode 2. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-12; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-12.
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I will visit Jess by [17.4.11.18.00.PST] today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-04-12; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-12.
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I will visit Jess today. (Before [17.4.11.23.59.PST].) ( 60% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-12.
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Politics, US – Steve Bannon is demoted in some fashion or leaves the White House before the end of April 2017 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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Politics, US – Steve Bannon is demoted in some fashion or leaves the White House before the end of April 2017 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 39+2 weeks gestation ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by taryneast on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-03-20; judged right by taryneast on 2017-04-11.
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My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) when I am greater than 39 weeks ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-03-25; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-04-11.
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Go to the bank today. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-11; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-11.
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Go to CVS today. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-11; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-11.
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I will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games by [17.4.10.12.00.PST]. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-11.
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By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my papers; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-permanent) homes. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-10.
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By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my books; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-)permanent homes. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-10.
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By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my clothes; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-)permanent 'homes'. ( 57% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-10.
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Haskell dick (author of a textbook) is male. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-10; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-09.
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My soylent will have a shorter time between first order and first delivery than D's. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged right by tylercurtis on 2017-04-09.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Wanda returns to Gobwin Knob during pages 247 to 250. ( 12% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-04-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-09.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-04-08; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-08.
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The 2017 Apr 07 attack on Stockholm, Sweden was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-07; known on 2017-05-07; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08.
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Politics, US – Deal struck involving at least one Democrat to confirm Gorsuch to Supreme Court in April. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-07.
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Politics, US – Constitutional option used to confirm Gorsuch to Supreme Court in April. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-07.
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Politics, UK – Ken Livingstone is expelled from Labour as a result of the disciplinary hearing on his comments claiming Hitler supported Zionism. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-31; known on 2017-04-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-07.