Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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More than 40% of SSC17 answerees self-identify in the top 30% right end of the scale ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-03-17.
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No second Scottish independence referendum announced in 2017. ( 80% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-03-16.
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PVV will not end up in power. ( 80% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-03-16.
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Partij voor de Vrijheid will gain 5+ seats in the Dutch election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-03-16.
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My MRI will be at the doctor on Wednesday ( 98% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-03-15; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-16.
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The COIN thread on Vipul Naik's paid editing enterprise will continue to receive at least three comments a day as of March 15, 2017. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-03-16; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-16.
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I will not check news.ycombinator.com or mirror more than twice a day from now until 2017-03-16 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-16.
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Geert Wilders' PVV will win strictly more seats in the Dutch general election than any other party. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-03-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-15.
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“Logan” rotten tomatoes aggregate score is < 80% ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-15; known on 2017-03-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-15.
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Two+ dates this week ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-06; known on 2017-03-13; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-13.
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One+ date this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-13; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-13.
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Fiction, Webcomic, Guilded Age – Gravedust loses his challenge. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-04; known on 2017-03-25; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-03-12.
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Fiction, Webseries, Twig – Sy arranges an at least temporary truce within 17.11 or 17.12 ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-04; known on 2017-03-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-03-12.
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Peter Singer actually wasn't no-platformed in March 2017 ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-08; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-10.
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Full test goes ahead as planned tomorrow ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-08; judged wrong by penten on 2017-03-08.
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My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 37+2 weeks of gestation ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-03-07; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-03-07.
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If we ship all the page speed stories specified for this sprint, we will improve the time to initial render of the product show and rage pages by 10%. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jack_trike on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-03-07; judged right by jack_trike on 2017-03-07.
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get into AMF ( 20% confidence )
Created by jamesd0 on 2017-01-24; known on 2017-02-28; judged wrong by jamesd0 on 2017-03-06.
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I stay at the Montara Lighthouse this weekend ( 65% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-02; known on 2017-03-06; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-06.
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I tracked our spending between 11th Feb 2017 and 4th March 2017 AND it is within 1000gbp ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2017-03-05; judged wrong by penten on 2017-03-06.
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S tooth appears within 10 days ( 70% confidence )
Created by penten on 2017-02-24; known on 2017-03-06; judged wrong by penten on 2017-03-06.
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Cabinet appointment for Bernie Sanders. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ospond on 2017-03-06.
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1b ( 5% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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1b ( 5% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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2d ( 80% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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2e ( 90% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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3a ( 90% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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3b ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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3c ( 0% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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3d ( 90% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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3b ( 0% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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4d ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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4d ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-03-05; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-05.
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will happen ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by raghunie on 2017-03-03; known on 2017-03-04; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05.
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I go on three or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 ( 50% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-08; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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I go on four or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-08; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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I go on two or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 ( 65% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-08; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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US GDP growth in 2016 lower than in 2015 ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2017-03-02.
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US unemployment to be lower at end of 2016 than beginning ( 75% confidence )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2017-03-02.
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Trump gives another solo press conference in February 2017 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-17; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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Barack Obama will start serving a consecutive third term as President of the United States, or otherwise remain in office as President on March 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-02.
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A Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party's Presidential candidate nomination. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-03-01.
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Politics – President Trump rescinds at least one of Obama's executive orders relating to non-discrimination against LGBT people before end of February 2017. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-03-01.
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Politics – President Trump rescinds at least one of Obama's executive orders relating to non-discrimination against LGBT people before end of February 2017. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-03-01.
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Lasso will win the Ecuadorian election ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-01.
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Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-03-01.
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US economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
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Complete lack of cheesecake. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-07-09; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag on Wikipedia will be lower for February 2017 than for February 2016. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for February 2017 than for February 2016. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01.