Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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S3 us-east will be down for more than 16 hours from the start of the outage ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-28; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-01.
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Hacksaw Ridge wins 2017 Oscar for best picture ( 10% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-05; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by trishume on 2017-02-28.
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Arrival wins 2017 Oscar for best picture ( 30% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-05; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by trishume on 2017-02-28.
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Once I quit my job, move to Spain, begin learning programming, my Penn State Authentic happiness score will be above 3.7. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2017-02-27.
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I will be ILR Level 2 proficient in Spanish after my time in Spain. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2017-02-27.
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Emma Stone wins best actress at 2017 Oscars ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged right by penten on 2017-02-27.
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La La Land wins best picture at the 2017 Oscars ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-02-27.
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Moana wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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Zootopia wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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Kubo and the Two Strings wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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I predict that the price of oil will not change by more than 20% for a 2 week time period after the US presidency is announced in 2016. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-26.
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Fiction, Webcomics, Erfworld – Marie goes through a portal within pages 237 to 240 inclusive. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-02-18; known on 2017-03-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-02-26.
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Fiction, Webseries, Twig – The Lambs leave without a fight during 17.6 or 17.7. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-02-18; known on 2017-02-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-02-26.
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UKIP will win the Stoke-on-Trent by-election ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-03-09; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-02-24.
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The only thing in Malocker is the empty, washed cookie container. ( 70% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2017-02-22; known on 2017-02-22; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-02-22.
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S slept for an uninterrupted stretch of more than 4 hours between 9pm and 7am on 4 out of the 5 days previous to the prediction due date. ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-02-21; judged right by penten on 2017-02-21.
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My brain inflammation will subside before 2017-02-22 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-02-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-20.
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SpaceX makes a successful launch on 2017-02-19. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-02-18; known on 2017-02-20; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-19.
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The price of a US postage stamp (1-ounce letter) will not increase within the next year. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-02-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-18.
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'The East Side Access subway extension opens in New York' in 2016 ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-16.
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Merrick Garland will fill Scalia's SCOTUS seat ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-16.
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I go on an OKC date by February 15, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-02-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-02-15.
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Mike Flynn (Michael T. Flynn) will not be the National Security Advisor before the end of 2017. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-14.
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I will try an alcoholic drink in 2017 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-02-13.
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I will try an alcoholic drink in 2017 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-02-13.
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No recession will occur in the United States for the next 4 years. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-02-13.
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“The Obama administration will propose a Federal consumption tax, such as a VAT. “I don't think it will be very soon, but it will be within eight years' time.”" —Tyler Cowen ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2017-04-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-12.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile before the end of 2017 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-01-22; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-12.
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Politics – President Trump or their representative in some manner orders Green Card holders with a nationality currently barred from entry to be permitted to enter the United States by end of 2017-02-05. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-02-11.
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President Trump will break from recent tradition and have either more than one comedic act the White House Correspondents' Dinner, or no comedian at all. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Jeff Foxworthy provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Milo Yiannopoulos provides light hearted commentary as comedic relief during White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-30.
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Andrew Dice Clay provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinne ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Jimmy Fallon provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Jimmy Fallon provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Jimmy Fallon provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Milo Yiannopoulos provides light hearted commentary as comedic relief during White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-30.
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Andrew Dice Clay provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinne ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Jimmy Fallon provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Jeff Foxworthy provides comedy at the White House Correspondents' Dinner ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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President Trump will break from recent tradition and have either more than one comedic act the White House Correspondents' Dinner, or no comedian at all. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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I go on at least one date from 2017-02-06 to 2017-03-01 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-07; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-02-10.
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Trump calls out at least one specific performer for refusing to participate in his inauguration ceremony on twitter. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-02-10; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-02-10.
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The orthotic makes my achilles peritendonitis better within 3 months. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2017-02-07; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2017-02-07.
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Politics – President Trump or their representative in some manner orders dual nationals with citizenship both of a nationality barred from entering and of a non-barred nationality to be permitted to enter by end of 2017-02-05. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-02-06.
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Politics – President Trump rescinds the Executive Order suspending entry to the United States of Iranian nationals by end of 2017-02-05. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2017-02-06.
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HP MoR: Dementors simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. Death Note) ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-02-06.
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HP MoR: Ravenclaw and Slytherin will both win the House Cup, because Hogwarts rules are unclear whether house points earned by students that have left Hogwarts should be counted. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2012-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-02-06.
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HP MoR: Ravenclaw and Slytherin will both win the House Cup, because people will be uncertain whether Harry's points ought go to Slytherin or Ravenclaw. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2012-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-02-06.
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Hillary Clinton becomes president and the TPP passes executive approval in the US ( 17% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-05.