PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Tech – The Samsung S8, as released, has no home button. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-03-30; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-29.

The UK triggers Article 50. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-03-31; judged right by custom on 2017-03-29.

Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.

Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.

NBE approval comes in ( 60% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-15; known on 2017-03-24; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-28.

GiveWell will publish at least one of its annual review blog posts on or before April 1, 2017. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-28.

Second date with L ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-27.

Fiction, Webcomics, Guilded Age – Both potential warchief trolls survive their fight. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-03-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-03-27.

Kentucky wins the NCAA tournament ( 12% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-15; known on 2017-04-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-26.

Fiction, Webcomic, Erfworld – Marie captures Jillian within pages 241 to 246 inclusive. ( 40% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-04; known on 2017-03-25; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-03-25.

The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2018. ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.

The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before July 1, 2017. ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.

The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before April 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.

North Korea conducts nuclear test ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25.

My application for the Mt Whitney Lottery will be accepted. ( 35% confidence )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-03-24.

2017 Mar 23 The AHCA act will not pass congress today ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-03-28; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-24.

Two+ dates in the next week ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-24.

Sprouts is open till 10 ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-24; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-24.

Second date with J ( 50% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-17.

There won't be more than two questions on the distinction between interval and ratio on Alex's test ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-23.

Second date with J ( 50% confidence )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-17.

The 2017 Mar 22 attack on the UK Parliament was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.

ISIS claims responsibility for the 2017-03-22 UK parliament attack. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ioannes on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.

Sydney from Grrlpower will get another level-up before March 22, 2017 (real time). ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-03-23; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-03-23.

PredictionBook fails to recognize the major, ongoing technical issues with its site and will not change the website for at least a year. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-21.

Villanova doesn't win the NCAA tournament ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-15; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-21.

I will buy an NVIDIA graphics card before 2018 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-21.

By adding support for JS unit testing, we expect the feature test suite duration to drop by 30s–1min (by replacing the sign up specs) on CI ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Wes on 2017-02-07; known on 2017-03-07; judged wrong by Wes on 2017-03-21.

By removing the review bottleneck and empowering developers, Team Fox expects to ship at least 10% more points this sprint. ( 70% confidence )

Created by jack_trike on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-21; judged wrong by jack_trike on 2017-03-21.

We would have working airflow Dag by the end of this sprint ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-20; judged wrong by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-20.

By the end of the sprint we will have simplified the setup of Bellroy project by removing at-least 2-3 manual tasks such as sample files, database creation, initial webpack. ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-20; judged right by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-20.

2017 Mar 20 Both of my predictions will be marked as correct ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.

FBI Director James Comey on Monday will not claim that then President Obama wiretapped any candidate of the 2016 US Presidential Election ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.

FBI Director James Comey on Monday will not claim that then President Obama wiretapped then candidate Trump ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.

Ubuntu 17.10 comes with version 1.8+ of golang ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.

Ubuntu 17.10 comes with version 1.8+ of golang ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.

will get 100% on quiz ( 40% confidence )

Created by elephantower on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-20; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-20.

Bad page state issue is caused by something else ( 13% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.

Bad page state issue is caused by VirtualBox ( 40% confidence )