Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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President Trump will rescind Chelsea Manning's commutation before it takes effect on May 17, 2017 ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – At least two of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the 20th of June 2017. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
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I will have > 10,000 lines of Elixir before 2018 ( 87% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-17.
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The nation source from which Trump leaked information about ISIS to Russia was either Israel or Jordan ( 85% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-16; known on 2067-05-16; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-16.
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Benfica will win the Portuguese Football Championship in the 2016/17 season ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jscc on 2017-01-06; known on 2017-05-16; judged right by jscc on 2017-05-16.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of S80. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of GKMC. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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Chelsea FC will win a Champions League place in 2016-2017 ( 68% confidence )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-05-14; judged right by Paul.David.Carr on 2017-05-15.
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cb95139af8cd20f1c3763ebfa7fd53e6 will come back safe and sound from her trip to america ( 96% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-13; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-14.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – At least one of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove is removed by the end of the 20th of June, 2017. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-12.
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obamacare repealed in 6 months ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jal278 on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-05-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-11.
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At least one PlayStation-level data breach. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2017-05-10.
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illidanstr will accept and complete the Death by Hormones Exam within two weeks. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-28; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-10.
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The number of unique commenters on this prediction will be less than 30 OR the number of unique accounts who add wagers will be less than 80. by May 8th 11.30 AM UTC. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sahil on 2017-05-05; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by danielfilan on 2017-05-09.
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Server “Aisha” upgrades to Ubuntu 17.10 to successful boot/apache/emacs ( 67% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08; known on 2017-05-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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No 3rd party verification for North Korea's claim to have tested a thermonuclear weapon. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Brahmos (I) missile will have a successful launch from aircraft in 2016 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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> 0.77% of global energy produced from solar (thermal or electricity both count) ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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J shows up today as agreed ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Unsong chapter 71 will be very similar to third line of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Clod_and_the_Pebble “But for another gives its ease”. ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-09; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-08.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Le Pen elected president of france 2017 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07.
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LePen elected president of france, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by regex on 2017-05-07.
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Le Pen will lose the presidential election. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-05-07.
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Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Jean Luc Mélenchon becomes French president ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2017-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France, conditional on her running ( 63% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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I will get at least 52 hours of sleep between now and next Sunday, as measured by the SleepCycle app I use on my phone. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-30; known on 2017-05-07; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-07.
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Politics, Brazil – President Temer's pension reforms pass before the end of 2017-05-05. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-05-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-06.
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By May 1, 2017, will be publicly known that the US government had head transplant technology. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06.
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Gold will hit US$1300 by May 1st 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06.
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Politics, US – Tennessee Senate passes bill permitting drivers to put “In God We Trust” on their license plates by the end of April 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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UK – Culprit of acid attack in Islington identified and identified to have had religious motivations by end of April 2017. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Politics, Europe – Greek delayed bailout payment negotiations conclude with agreement to release the payment, by end of April 2017. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Community Project – Challenger Day is run in the UK before the end of April 2017, being run defined as being announced and having at least five people attend. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Weekday ridership at the Fremont BART will decline once the Warm Springs / South Fremont BART becomes operational, as judged by Vipul Naik based on data at http://www.bart.gov/about/reports/ridership ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-04.
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I will manage to get into ketosis at least once by the end of May. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-16; known on 2017-05-31; judged right by Mike on 2017-05-03.
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Parents' loan payment > $1350 ( 75% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-03; known on 2017-05-03; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-03.
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Parents' loan payment > $999 ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-03; known on 2017-05-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-03.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the countries tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-03.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Korean television shows and series tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 32% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the birds tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the colors tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2017 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2017-05-02.
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GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 on or before May 1, 2017. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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By ensuring that the other two teams can focus on their objective by dealing with “forced move” stories, we expect PPD for other two teams to go up between 0.1 to 0.25. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-04-28; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-02.
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Politics, US – Steve Bannon leaves the White House by the end of April 2017 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 30 days [2017-04-01] ( 46% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.