Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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nuclear war by july 7, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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nuclear war by july 7, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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The Republicans will use the nuclear option to approve Gorsuch. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-04-18; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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Devin Nunes will step down as Intelligence committee chairman OR recuse himself with regards to the Trump Russia investigation before the end of 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-28; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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Devin Nunes will step down as Intelligence committee chairman OR recuse himself with regards to the Trump Russia investigation before the end of 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-28; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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Devin Nunes will step down as Intelligence committee chairman OR recuse himself with regards to the Trump Russia investigation before the end of 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-28; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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Residents of Cloister House will be able to return today ( 54% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-05; known on 2017-04-06; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-06.
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We will get out the first Airflow story to production this sprint. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-04; judged right by Jais Cheema on 2017-04-05.
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Until 2017-04-02 Sun: I consume < 50 kcal in my bedroom ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04.
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Until 2017-04-02 Sun: I do not set any music playing for just myself, other than as linked to or mentioned by other people; or for Deliberately Practising recitation or vocals; or incidental (e.g. YouTube video intros of videos I opened). ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04.
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Parents' loan payment > $999 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-28; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-03.
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Parents' loan payment > $1500 ( 66% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-28; known on 2017-04-03; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-03.
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Conditional on the UK Government seeking permission from Parliament to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the vote will pass. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-05-14; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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I will consider myself “in a relationship” at any point in 2017 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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The Scottish Parliament will “veto” Brexit. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.
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Funding Circle profitable by end of 2016 ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-03.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.
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There will be a standalone Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Facebook as of March 31, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Issa Rice on 2017-04-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for March 2017 than for March 2016. ( 57% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-02.
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There will be a standalone Wikipedia page about GiveWell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GiveWell as of March 31, 2017. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-02.
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Politics, US – A Trump nominee for a position requiring confirmation withdraws their nomination, fails to get confirmed, or later resigns before the end of March 2017. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-02-18; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-02.
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UK – No deal between RMT and Southern Rail ending the dispute over the role of guards on trains reached by end of March 2017. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-02-18; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-04-02.
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Politics, US – Records, forensic evidence, or sourced testimony from officials who were within the intelligence community during the previous US administration is released before the end of March 2017 supporting Trump's claim of being wiretapped. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for March 2017 than for March 2016. ( 43% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for March 2017 than for March 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for March 2017 than for March 2016. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01.
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Vipul Naik will be banned from editing Wikipedia as of March 31, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01.
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petes will be satisfied ( 88% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-04-01.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Ethanbas will be indefinitely blocked from editing Wikipedia by the end of March ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-04-01.
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I think i will learn how to make better predictions ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by axl5073 on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by axl5073 on 2017-04-01.
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At least one Trump solo press conference in March 2017. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-02; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-01.
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One of Scott Gottleib, Jim O’Neill, or Balaji Srinavasan become FDA commissioner by April 1st 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-26; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-01.
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I read >13 books in 2017 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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The UK triggers Article 50 in 2017 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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Resolution 3 : Stay out of ER as patient in 2017 ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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GDP growth in china >6.6% in 2016 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-15; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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By 2017-03-31 Fri, or by 18:00 on the first day of that job, whichever is the earlier: My credence that I was particularly supposed to or expected to print off one or more copies of one or both of those documents rises, at any point, above 66.0%. ( 43% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-01.
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There will be a Google Summer of Code in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-01.
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Civil war in any country of G7+EU: at least 2 such events in 2 states/NUTS-1 regions each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
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Civil war in USA: at least 2 such events in 2 US states each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
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08e7d33f4ee5c2357aec272a798dcb369b3bbff54214d1b0161e8d38982b387f ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-18; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-01.
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Another 3+/-1 M$ goes into copyright board of canada in 2016 ( 99% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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David Cameron's successor will not formally invoke Article 50 (conditional on DC not doing it) ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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Theresa May triggers Article 50 without the explicit support of Sturgeon, the Scottish parliament, or a second referendum ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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Tech – Google Hangouts shows a notification or message on opening the app on the 27th March in the US and/or UK directing users to switch to another app for SMS. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-25; known on 2017-03-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-03-31.
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Iraq – Mass grave at Badoush prison confirmed by sources outside Hashd al-Shaabi and contains the remains of at least 200 people by the end of 2017-03-26. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-03-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-03-31.
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Politics, UK – Power-sharing administration established in Northern Ireland before the end of the three week deadline. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-04; known on 2017-03-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-03-30.
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SpaceX – Launch using a reused first stage successfully delivers payload to orbit. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-03-31; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-03-30.
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SpaceX – Launch using a reused first stage successfully lands the first stage again without destroying it. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-03-31; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-03-30.