Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will continue to allocate thirty minutes a day to journalling and task management for the first week of the experiment and will not miss a session. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-21; known on 2017-05-28; judged right by Mike on 2017-05-28.
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tracy hickman is female ( 80% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-05-28; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-05-28.
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Michael Chong elected leader of Conservative Party of Canada ( 9% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-05-28; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-28.
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Dan McLaughlin will fail to play the PGA Tour after completing 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26384712 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2014-05-01; known on 2017-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2017-05-27.
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Greater than 15% of Republicans vote for Clinton or third party. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-05-27.
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I will make dinner for my family on Friday, May 26th. ( 75% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-05-27; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-05-27.
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Prof will present the paper next week. ( 25% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-05-27; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-05-27.
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Velvet Scarlatina will appear in Season 2 of RWBY Chibi, voiced by Caiti Ward. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-27.
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Another company will come out with a game console next generation thats not Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-26.
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Jared Kushner is the person of interest mentioned in the Washington post article ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-20; known on 2027-05-20; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-26.
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Politics, Iraq – Islamic State holds no territory in Mosul by the end of the 25th of May. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-05-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Bitcoin hits 1M$ or equivalent / bitcoin in any market at any point before jan 1, 2018 (Such as VEF in localbitcoins) ( 92% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25.
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Bitcoin hits 1M$ or equivalent / bitcoin in any market at any point before jan 1, 2018 (Such as VEF in localbitcoins) ( 92% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Google announces the integration of an ad blocker, including one acting only for some types or classes or behaviours of advertisement into Chrome ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Copyless Paste is announced as going to be integrated into Gboard. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-05-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – A Google Home/Google Wifi combined product is announced. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – At least one new Pixel phone is announced. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – A standalone VR headset sold by Google is announced. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25.
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I will go to the gym 30 more times this semester. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2017-02-14; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-05-25.
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Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-07; known on 2036-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-25.
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willow tree instrumental song ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Google announces a release of the Fuschia operating system at Google I/O, with the release to happen within the next year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25.
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AlphaGo will win Match Two against Ke Jie ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25.
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My relatives (whom I haven't met before) will misgender me over dinner tonight. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-25.
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BTC will exceed $2500 USD on Bitstamp by the end of May 2017 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sebnow on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-05-25.
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Alice will offer me an orange. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-05-23; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-25.
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I will graduate with a degree in any field other than economics from Washington University in St Louis ( 25% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2017-05-09; judged wrong by Isaac on 2017-05-24.
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I will graduate from Washington University in St Louis with a degree in Economics in 2017 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2017-05-16; judged right by Isaac on 2017-05-24.
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c will livestream Mushroom 11 before May 24 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-24.
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There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.
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We will have the new data layer and redux events in the data layer by the end of this sprint. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-04-05; known on 2017-04-18; judged wrong by Jais Cheema on 2017-05-24.
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Kenji Matsumoto wins the 2017 Niagara Falls Scrabble Tournament (prediction recorded after tournament started but before looking at results). ( 18% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-05-23; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-05-24.
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Trump's first state visit will be to the UK. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-05-23.
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Mississippi State Rep Karl Oliver apologizes in some way for his lynching comment ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-22; known on 2017-11-22; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-23.
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Bitcoin hits 1M$ or equivalent / bitcoin in any market at any point before jan 1, 2018 (Such as VEF in localbitcoins) ( 92% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25.
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I will stay on the ketogenic diet for at least three weeks starting tomorrow, Monday 1 May. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-30; known on 2017-05-22; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-21.
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bullock won lake county ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-05-20; judged right by elephantower on 2017-05-20.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – All three of the remaining Confederacy monuments will be removed before the end of 2017 ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-07; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-20.
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Y will ask Issa to do something for her during their meeting today ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19; known on 2017-05-21; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-20.
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I will finish my dissertation before March 30, 2017 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19.
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Politics, US – Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate connections between the Trump Campaign and Russia by the 17th of June 2017. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-19.
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zip file has episode 385 in it ( 66% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-19.
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BTCUSD will exceed 2000 during May 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by Nve on 2017-05-18.
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Jason Chaffetz resigns from congress ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-18.
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Unsongbook will have at least 100 but not more than 200 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Unsongbook will have at least 50 but not more than 500 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Last chapter of Unsong will be numbered 72 ( 94% confidence )
Created by kuudes on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-22; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Politics, Brazil – President Temer's pension reforms leave committee, having voted on amendments, to be subsequently considered by the Chamber of Deputies before the end of 2017-05-12. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-18.
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NATO-Russia nuclear war following Richard Shirreff's timeline ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2017-05-17; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-17.