Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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They catch the bus ( 84% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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R has been told by 05:00 'Friday' he's the M K person ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-16.
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R does M K 26th ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-16.
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I take it back to the house ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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It's now between 23:15 and 23:45 on my phone ( 58% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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In the first karaoke artist book I check, there will be no Mumford & Sons tracks in the obvious place ( 86% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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I see S at P ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by EagleEye on 2015-04-16.
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7 mins to get there as measured by first of touching CC or F or getting to top of those stairs by 7m55s ( 32% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Paul Lansky is alive ( 57% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Effective altruist survey (http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/) results will be released by March ( 60% confidence )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-03-29.
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The Crowfall kickstarter will reach its “Pack Animal For Everyone” stretch goal of 14,500 backers ( 40% confidence )
Created by Rowan93 on 2015-03-21; known on 2015-03-26; judged right by davidmanheim on 2015-03-29.
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I go to RDT birthday pre-drinks ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-28; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-28.
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More Google glass will be sold in the first 80 days than iPads 1 were sold in the first 80 days (which is 3 millions). ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-03-28.
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Lady Gaga will dominate the pop music industry for the next 5 years ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alicewilson on 2010-03-22; known on 2015-03-22; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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Italian Supreme Court in Rome will confirm convictions of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito on charge of killing Meredith Kercher. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by komponisto on 2015-03-25; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by komponisto on 2015-03-28.
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HP MoR: Harry's disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse) ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-27.
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It will be clear by March 25,2015 that the Minsk ceasefire did not hold ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-27.
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HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing under another name (eg. 'Tom Riddle') ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-27.
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HP MoR: The original Quirrel was Voldemort's master or teacher ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The Prophecy actually referred to Neville Longbottom and not Harry ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore deliberately arranged for Voldemort to learn of the prophecy about his defeat. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body and Bellatrix Black will be used in it ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak are all the same person. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first and is Quirrel ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will steal the Philosopher's Stone at some point ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will spend >=2 years as Defense professor ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a younger version of Voldemort, a damaged backup from many years before (like the diary Riddle) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is the fused personality of Voldemort + original Quirrel ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 1% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MOR: “And then he greeted Death as an old friend and went with him gladly, departing this life as equals.” this is a quote from harry potter cannon. my prediction is that being marked as an equal in HPMOR refers to the invisibility cloak. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by esran on 2013-07-28; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Voldemort is proper dead. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder’s Map is the appearance of a marked Riddle or Voldemort on the map in places without people ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder's Map is people appearing in multiple places simultaneously due to use of Time Turners. ( 42% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tadrinth on 2012-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing as 'the Defense Professor' ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be mentioned by name but not appear ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will learn the killing curse by the end of the year or Quirrell will be disappointed that Harry has not learned the killing curse by the end of the year. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-24; known on 2014-05-15; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Professor Quirrel is manipulating Harry into getting the Philosopher's stone for him (as of ch95) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-18; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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My Kickstarter will fail without reaching 50% (https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/synaptitude/thinksuite-brainware-not-software) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-03-25; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-25.
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I tidy my room and send that e-mail in the next 24.25 hours ( 51% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-23; known on 2015-03-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-25.
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I remember my starter for the debating meal ( 85% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-24; known on 2015-03-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-24.
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I go to the Debating meal on 24/03/15 ( 67% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-24.