Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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/r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-03; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-04-03.
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FC other than x before 07:00 Monday 1st June 2015 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Will believe SG was at P with prob >= 90% after usual checks ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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A or P at P with retroactive >=90% probability ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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S or G at P as confirmed by speaking ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 3c real, conditional on exactly one real ( 53% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 3b real, conditional on exactly one real ( 27% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 3a real, conditional on exactly one real ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 2c real, conditional on exactly one real ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 2b real, conditional on exactly one real ( 15% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 2a real, conditional on exactly one real ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 1c real, conditional on exactly one real ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 1b real, conditional on exactly one real ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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Spot the REAL Hypothesis: 1a real, conditional on exactly one real ( 30% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-02.
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I will get sick sometime in March. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-01.
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The answer I just wrote on Quora will get more than 100 upvotes by the end of the month. ( 4% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2015-03-08; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-04-01.
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By April 1 either at least one user on LW will be either banned or publicly reprimanded for abusing the karma system or it will be determined that Eugine_Nier is still using multiple accounts to push the karma system in a way that strongly favors his poli ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-01.
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I will finish the exercises from “Thermal Physics” by end 1Q 2015 thus completing second year physics. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-04-01.
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Weight down to 67 kg by end 1Q 2015. Currently 69.2 kg down from 82kg. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-04-01.
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I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 1Q 2015. This means finishing testing the code, optimizing, getting up to date data, and setting up the actual trading. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-04-01.
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HPMoR: Harry will bring Hermione back to life. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2015-03-31.
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I will have no mortgage by the end of April 2015. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.
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Australia will see its first domestic, large scale “terror” attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.
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Silk Road: there will have been a bust (>10 named defendants) related to forged IDs eg. driver's licenses, linked to the SR vendor KingOfClubs ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-25; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-31.
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Based on age, Otis Redding committed suicide (might be hard to judge; prepare to leave Unknown) ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31.
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Based on age, Otis Redding killed by cancer ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31.
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Based on age, Otis Redding was murdered ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31.
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Based on age, Otis Redding died from heart condition ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31.
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Based on age, Otis Redding died in vehicle accident ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31; known on 2015-03-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-31.
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I will be enrolled in 3, 4, or 5 classes at the University of Chicago, in the spring quarter of 2015. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-30.
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I will be enrolled in (3, 4, or 5) college courses in the Spring 2015 academic quarter. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-30.
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“Focus Fusion process to generate net power before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” -intrade ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Serge on 2015-03-30.
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Zendikar fetchlands are reprinted in “Louie” set. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Serge on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by Serge on 2015-03-30.
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Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 7/10 ( 16% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 6/10 ( 27% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 5/10 ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Based on first 71s of review and three paragraphs of description, Anthony Fantano gives Mr. Wonderful 4/10 ( 14% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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11 the other ( 15% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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10 the other ( 30% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Nina Simone's birthday was May 11th ( 15% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Nina Simone's birthday was May 10th ( 30% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Yeezus has Metascore >= 90/100, conditional on unique Metacritic figure being given on Wikipedia article ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Anna Wise on Wesley's Theory according to Genius or album's Wikipedia article ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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In the outro of To Pimp A Butterfly, after reciting the final poem, Kendrick says Pac's name exactly three times both on Genius and on that version ( 77% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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2pac died between 30 and 34 conventional years of age, inclusive ( 54% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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2pac died between 25 and 35 conventional years of age ( 86% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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Malcolm X was murdered, and died from (in part or otherwise) gunshot wound ( 94% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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CoD: MW3 Survival: That truck on Fallen blows up ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by CCMFPD on 2015-04-16.
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Action Ronson – Baby Blue (ft Chance the Rapper) on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue now ( 19% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.
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No Church in the Wild on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue ( 63% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-03-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30.