PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

HPMoR: Harry will try to take possession of the other deathly hallows ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR: Harry will find the room of requirement. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR: Voldemort will not die, nor become 'good'(ie. ally with Harry), but he will become (seemingly permanently) too weak to do evil (ex.: he will be in jail, or in suspended animation, etc.). ( 15% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR: Voldemort will kill Harry Potter and still do 'evil things' at the end of the story. ( 6% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR: Voldemort was good from the beginning. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR (up to 98): Hermione's body was stolen from a future version of Harry Potter. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMOR: The character of Harry will ultimately come to at least consider the fact that he is literally within a story. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2015-09-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR: Voldemort will ally with Harry Potter (ex.: to fight death). ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMOR : The Dark Lord that Harry will vanquish is not Quirrelmort but Death itself. (http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h) ( 55% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Osuniev on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMOR : Quirrel has the resurrection stone. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

In HPMOR, Bartemus Crouch Sr. will be revealed as having covered up Crouch Jr.'s membership in the Death Eaters, or otherwise shielding him from the consequences in some way, in direct opposition to his reputation as a stalwart upholder of the law. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JohnWittle on 2015-03-12; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.

HPMoR: The spell of cursèd fire is Amaterasu. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-23.

HPMoR: The spell of cursèd fire is Amaterasu. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-23.

I will get my favourite seat on the bus ( 55% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23; known on 2015-03-23; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23.

I will have a Facebook message ( 25% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23; known on 2015-03-23; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23.

I go to the Mark Drama on 23/03/15 ( 80% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-23; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-23.

By 2025, at least one major world city will have a restaurant featuring 3D printed food. ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-25; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2015-03-23.

We'll get a parking ticket in the next month. ( 45% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-03-23; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-23.

HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.

HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh . ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.

HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.

HPMoR: The spell of cursèd fire is Amaterasu. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-23.

The Coop was open ( 55% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-22; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22.

The Coop was open ( 55% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-22; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22.

The garlic in Sainsbury's was where I thought it was ( 60% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22; known on 2015-03-22; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22.

He doesn't take any of that lecture, conditional on eclipse roughly as described, as agreed by prediction setters ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-22.

HPMoR: In chapter 111, Voldemort is lying about the loss of the Horcrux network, conditional on events not being inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2015-03-22.

A video is uploaded to /user/SenpaiKush which has upload date lying in March 2015 ( 56% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-22.

The Crowfall kickstarter will reach its “Mounts & Caravans” $1.3 million stretch goal ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Rowan93 on 2015-03-21; known on 2015-03-26; judged right by Rowan93 on 2015-03-22.

S will respond. ( 50% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-27; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-21.

I see J at P ( 78% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-20; known on 2015-03-21; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-21.

HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.

HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever, and this outcome will be either planned or permitted by Harry ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )