Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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V fixed the bug. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-19; known on 2015-03-20; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-19.
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Satoshi nakamoto will be Time’s Person of the Year 2014. http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-19.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Israeli Election: Zionist Union will get more votes than Likud ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Rigulel on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-03-18; judged wrong by Rigulel on 2015-03-18.
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My startup Synaptitude raises at least $100,000 when we launch on Kickstarter sometime in Q1 (early) 2015: http://synaptitude.me/ ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-11-30; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-03-17.
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Created by lettergram on 2014-06-27; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-03-17.
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'Today', I do gym and track stuff then my first BK of the day ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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I do gym and track stuff 'today' ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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CJ or HM or JB at P ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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CJ or HM or JB at P ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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One or t'other sees both BKB's in/around P ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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Meet up with G on that day ( 45% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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One or t'other sees both BKB's in/around P ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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I'll catch that train ( 10% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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DMT read first 99 chapters of HPMoR or said they had caught it up ( 28% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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R does 5th ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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R does 5th ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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B-S I illegal under UK law conditional on agreement in judging this of prediction setters ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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B-S I illegal under UK law conditional on agreement in judging this of prediction setters ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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BK see R & T ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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BK see R & T ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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One or t'other sees both BKB's in/around P ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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F accepts L Friend Request by the midnight ending Sunday, conditional on it being sent as claimed ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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No Jedi Mind Tricks songs (as featured or main artist) on Sunfly Karaoke ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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No Jedi Mind Tricks songs (as main artist) on Sunfly Karaoke website ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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It was from that person ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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CJ or HM or JB at P ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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R does 5th ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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B-S I illegal under UK law conditional on agreement in judging this of prediction setters ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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BK see R & T ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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HPMoR: Snape is present in Ch 114. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-03-03; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Chri on 2015-03-17.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon's diary ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is Voldemort's diary ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost ( 13% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HPMoR: Dumbledor will die with the feeling of betrayal. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be used to create a dementor. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: The Philosopher's Stone is an Horcrux. ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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“The power the Dark Lord knows not” is ability to make altruist plans. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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I have symptoms of Y before the end of March. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-23; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-16.
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HPMoR (up to 98): Harry Potter will never use the killing curse (aka the Avada Kedavra Curse). ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Unknowns on 2015-03-15.
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HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Voldemort will die (permanently). ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-15.
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hpmor- In the last few chapters, Harry will be referred to as the “spare” with Cedric Diggory nearby. ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged wrong by Faceh on 2015-03-15.
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HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.
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My PredictionBook calibration will be obviously better by my 400th prediction than it is now at 208 predictions. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by nick on 2013-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by nick on 2015-03-15.
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The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be greater than 50 people. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-15.
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The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be between 35 and 50 people. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-15.
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Between 5 and 20 people will attend the HP:MoR wrap party in Chicago. (Prediction made on March 4th) ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-10; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: By end of story, it will be revealed that the events at the end of Chapter 113 were just a setup for Harry to be seen defeating Voldemort. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-01; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.