Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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>10 HBs before I wake up Tuesday morning. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
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I'll work from home on Tues. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
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My cut shows signs of infection tomorrow. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
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When I wake up tomorrow (in Boston, Mass.) there will be snow on the ground. ( 100% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
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U of Maine (Orono) will be closed tomorrow due to snow. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-27.
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My favorite (fiction) book will be “Earth Abides” on January 1, 2015. ( 40% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by azax1 on 2015-01-27.
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MazeHatter will have a total negative karma score on LW on Feb 15, 2015 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-27.
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Someone will leave early on Mon for snow-related reasons. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
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We're already parked on the correct side of the street. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-26; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
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It will rain in Adderet in the next 7 days ( 85% confidence )
Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-25; judged wrong by TheBlackFox on 2015-01-30.
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When I wake up tomorrow I will still have hands. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-26; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
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Raptors will beat/draw against 76ers ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-24; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26.
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Hornets will beat/draw against Cavaliers ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-24; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26.
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Jordan will be upset about Sam taking time off. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
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Jordan will be upset about Sam taking time off. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
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Jordan will be upset about Sam taking time off. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
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Conditional on me getting a response from FMK, the response is positive in my eyes ( 33% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-26; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-25.
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I get a response from FMK before 22:00 today ( 90% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-25.
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Heart of Darkness in library ( 68% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-25.
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A will go to Top reexam. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-01-24; judged right by adri on 2015-01-25.
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It will rain in Adderet in the next 7 days ( 85% confidence )
Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-25; judged wrong by TheBlackFox on 2015-01-30.
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Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
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T on arrival ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-23; known on 2015-01-23; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-24.
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T on arrival ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-23; known on 2015-01-23; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-24.
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Will go past admission at Po's on 23rd/24th night ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-01-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-24.
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B still going to California before Feb 1. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-24; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-24.
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I will find SH as a Friend of RN in the next 5 minutes ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-19; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-24.
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That's All is in the book ( 33% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-24.
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There was a mistake on the stats paper ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-24.
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I will start to learn Korean before 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-10-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2015-01-23.
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T on arrival ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-23; known on 2015-01-23; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-24.
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I will approach Zak next time I see him on campus ( 68% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-23.
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All of the contestants of Survivor: Worlds Apart will be spoiled by the cast announcement (~25th of Jan) ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by mad on 2015-01-23.
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Created by mad on 2015-01-23; known on 2015-01-23; judged right by mad on 2015-01-23.
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Conditional on credible source, Skepta inclusively between 30 and 35 years old in common parlance ( 58% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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Conditional on credible source, JME inclusively between 30 and 35 years old in common parlance ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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Conditional on credible source, David Belle >= 40 years old in common parlance ( 64% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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Two new-to-me chapters of Bleach out ( 23% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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Zero new-to-me chapters of Bleach out ( 14% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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One new-to-me chapter of Bleach out ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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M FC N ( 4% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22.
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M KC N ( 25% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22.
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Conditional on a unique lower year being given in infobox, CunninLynguists formed in or before 2004 ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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FT ( 63% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-01-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22.
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I will fly back to Phoenix on the 21st of January, instead of driving at a somewhat later date. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-01-22.
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FMK was on the bus ( 5% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-22.
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Market cap in USD of top ten altcoins as a percentage of bitcoin market cap in USD to grow by at least 10% in a year. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-22.
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Heat will beat/draw against Hornets ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-22.
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He will catch the bus ( 65% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-01-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-21.
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Richard Simmons stated (in page, categories, or otherwise) as non-heterosexual on WP page ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-01-21; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-21.