Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
I go to watch the Superbowl ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-02-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.
-
Sam will go out tonight. ( 40% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-04; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04.
-
Those women were A's daughters. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04; known on 2015-02-05; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04.
-
Those women were A's daughters. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04; known on 2015-02-05; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04.
-
Vacation predictions: I will get sick from the food or water. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04.
-
Those women were A's daughters. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04; known on 2015-02-05; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04.
-
Vacation predictions: The power will go down at least once. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03.
-
The Patriots will win the Super Bowl. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-02-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-02-02.
-
One of the years 2014-2016 will be the hottest year ever. ( 60% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-02-02.
-
E hires me. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
-
There's another noise complaint before the end of the month. ( 5% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
-
Vacation predictions: We will miss our connecting flight. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
-
Vacation predictions: I will see at least one band playing Merengue music. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
-
The missing key card will turn up. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-02-28; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
-
Y T response by Monday 9th ( 33% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-02-09; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-01.
-
At least one of my sibling will make at least 20 predictions on this website before February 2015. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-02-01.
-
I will finish Antichamber before 2015-02-01 ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-25; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-02-01.
-
“Global Average Temperature for 2010-2014 to exceed that for 2005-2009 by 0.1 deg C or more” —Intrade ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-31.
-
The SMR Email list will be somewhere between 300 and 1000 subscribers on January 1st 2015 ( 90% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2014-09-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by MattG on 2015-01-30.
-
The SMR email list will reach 300 subscribers between September 16th 2014 and January 30th, 2015 ( 90% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2014-09-16; known on 2015-01-30; judged right by MattG on 2015-01-30.
-
BOTH will have accepted my friend request by the end of the day ( 30% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-30.
-
FMK will have accepted my friend request by the end of the day ( 67% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-01-30; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-30.
-
C's contract will be extended past Jan 30. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-02-02; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30.
-
We will meet about performance eval sometime this week. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30.
-
Knicks will beat/draw against Pacers ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-30.
-
It will rain in Adderet in the next 7 days ( 85% confidence )
Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-25; judged wrong by TheBlackFox on 2015-01-30.
-
Ben finished the laundry. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2014-01-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30.
-
I get the Khan Academy Internship ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-29; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-01-30.
-
I get the job at Google ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-29; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-01-30.
-
The house won't burn down while I'm at work today. ( 100% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29.
-
Updating software will solve the problem. ( 8% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29.
-
It will work on Sam's computer. ( 8% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29.
-
Pistons will beat/draw against 76ers ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-29; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-29.
-
HPMoR: Chapter 103 posted by midnight ending January 28th 2015 Berkeley time ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-02-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-29.
-
Those three FR's are accepted by the end of February ( 90% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-29.
-
Sh BK ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-28.
-
Sh BK ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-28.
-
Sh BK ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-28.
-
Sh BK ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-28.
-
F before PM ( 38% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28.
-
After seeing photos, I am confident that Mark Ronson is conventionally black ( 43% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-28.
-
J will go to work tomorrow. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28.
-
P will go to work tomorrow. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28.
-
AN will reply to the discussion content of my mail of 13 jan 2015 by 27 jan 2015. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Philip_W on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by Philip_W on 2015-01-28.
-
Nets will beat/draw against Trail Blazers ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
-
Knicks will beat/draw against Kings ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
-
Thunder will beat/draw against Timberwolves ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
-
Magic will beat/draw against Grizzlies ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
-
Pelicans will beat/draw against 76ers ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
-
J will comment on status. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.