Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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HPMoR: In chapter 111, Voldemort is lying about the loss of the Horcrux network, conditional on events not being inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2015-03-22.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape ( 18% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 70% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue. ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] Conditional on EY accepting a viable fan solution, it will be different to what will actually happen in the story. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by dain on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution involves time travel ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by dain on 2015-03-03.
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EY accepts at least one answer for the Final Exam, causing the story to continue to chapter 121. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-04; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution will hinge on truly convincing Voldemort to let Harry out of the box (i.e. no “brute force” transfiguration solutions where talking is just a distraction) ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR, Ch. 114] The true solution relies on Partial Transfiguration ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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HJPEV has access to Voldemort's Horcrux network, due to being sufficiently Tom Riddle. ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-03-03.
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The cat will throw up on Monday. ( 2% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-03.
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I will have 20k after walking out of work ( 65% confidence )
Created by pedrollo on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by pedrollo on 2015-03-03.
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Sheffield is 50 miles away from Bristol. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-02; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-02.
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My dad did not read the Slate State Codex posts I recommended, by Sunday, even though he said he needed until Sunday to get to them. evidence: - He hadn't read them on Thursday. - I think that he would have called or emailed me after he finished them ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-02-25; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-03-01.
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We'll end up paying extra for going over views limit. ( 5% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-01.
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DAX will stay above 9000pts until Mar 1, 2015 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2014-12-18; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by Chri on 2015-03-01.
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Bill will get hit by a train in it's a beautiful day. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-01; known on 2017-05-26; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-03-01.
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SS BK ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-02-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-01.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post at least 5 blog posts. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-28.
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HPMoR: In chapter 113, there is a fight between Voldemort and HJPEV in which Voldemort deliberately fights less well than they are capable of. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-02-28.
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I will be able to obtain HRT by the end of Feb 2015. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2015-02-28; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-02-28.
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I will lose at least 18lbs in the six months after starting the Shangri-La Diet, and maintain the diet for that duration, defined as taking at least 100kcal of near-tasteless calories on at least an average of four days each week. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2014-06-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-02-28.
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I will still be consuming a near-tasteless source of calories at least once every three days six months after starting trying the Shangri-La Diet. ( 6% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2014-06-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2015-02-28.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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Emma Watson and Prince Harry publicly confirm they are dating within a week. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-27; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-02-28.
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Feb R = 0 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.
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0 < Feb R =< 5k ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.
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5k < Feb R =< 10k ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.
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Feb R > 10k ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-27.
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At Wednesday's eye appointment it will be determined that I need a stronger prescription. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-26.
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Kurt Geiger was born conventional 60 years or more ago (on or before 26th February 1955). ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Kurt Geiger was born conventional 50 years or more ago (on or before 26th February 1965). ( 68% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Naruto ended at chapter 700 (as opposed to 500, 600, 800, etc.) ( 75% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Kano conventionally 30 years old or more ( 57% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Protein and carbs both give 2 kcal/g to nearest whole number in opening section of Wikipedia Food Energy article ( 61% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Ill Manors won a Mercury Prize (of some sort if applicable) ( 44% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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An Academy Award was awarded for Let It Go ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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Jasper Benincasa died at conventional age of 93 or more ( 59% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-02-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-26.
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The 11th floor faucet has been fixed. ( 80% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-02-26; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-25.
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I will think I've received some notable bit of 'positive' evidence that FMK is a bad idea by Monday 16th February. (FPP) ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-25.
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I will endorse the proposition that there was an R-'caused' F thing that felt like it was probably an Incident/Not Good between now and 06:00 Monday 16th February. (FPP) ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-25.
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Someone will compliment my outfit tomorrow. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-02-25; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-25.
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It's in that PS episode ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-02-25.
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It's in that PS episode ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-02-25.
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BK does hot chocolate ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-02-25.