Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will throw up in the next 6 months ( 10% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-02; known on 2015-02-02; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-02-14.
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It will be overclouded on 10 February ( 70% confidence )
Created by xplkqlkcassia on 2015-02-09; known on 2015-02-10; judged wrong by xplkqlkcassia on 2015-02-14.
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There will not be another meteor over Auckland tommorow ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by xplkqlkcassia on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-02-13; judged right by xplkqlkcassia on 2015-02-14.
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The subway will be closed down for at least part of this weekend. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-16; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-14.
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J ran script. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-14; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-14.
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Google Helpouts is shut down within the next 5 years. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-01; known on 2019-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-02-13.
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V will be there before I arrive. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-11; known on 2015-02-12; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-12.
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P will be there before I arrive. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-11; known on 2015-02-12; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-12.
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C will send me the files before 6pm today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-11; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-11.
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Luke Muehlhauser will not publish a book (by a mainstream publisher) in 2013. ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-11.
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MIT will be closed Wednesday. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-12; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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Luke Muehlhauser will not publish a book (by a mainstream publisher) in 2013. ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-11.
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I will have all files from C by 11:59pm Monday night. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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By 10am tomorrow I will no longer be locked out of openVPN. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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>10 HBs by the time I wake up tomorrow. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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MIT will be closed on Tuesday. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09; known on 2015-02-11; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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WPI will announce a cancellation of classes due to weather before noon today. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Taymon on 2015-02-09; known on 2015-02-09; judged wrong by Taymon on 2015-02-09.
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Tomorrow night's grocery delivery will be cancelled due to the snow. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
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Tomorrow night's grocery delivery will be cancelled due to the snow, and I will receive a discount as a result. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
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The owner of emmayouarenext.com will release nude photos of Emma Watson when the countdown expires. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Taymon on 2014-09-23; known on 2014-09-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06.
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Before 9am Monday there will be an email about someone working from home due to snow. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
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MIT will be closed on Monday. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
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NC whilst still 20 ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-02-19; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-02-08.
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That subreddit exists ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-02-07; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-02-08.
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That subreddit exists ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-02-07; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-02-08.
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P guy added F FB ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-02-07; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-02-08.
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Sam will get sunburned this week. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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I will get sunburned this week. ( 7% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: The cat will die while we're gone. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: Something will get stolen. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: I will be propositioned by a prostitute at least once. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: I will forget to pack something important. ( 35% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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We will see Marcos again. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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The water will go down again before we leave. ( 5% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: Sam will get sick from the food or water. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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That subreddit exists ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-02-07; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-02-08.
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A will write BA project with HH. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by adri on 2014-12-18; known on 2015-02-06; judged wrong by adri on 2015-02-07.
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I will have a girlfriend at some point in the next 365 days. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2015-02-06; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-02-06.
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Vacation predictions: Sam will be propositioned by a prostitute at least once. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-06.
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Sam will be home by 7. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-06; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05.
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Sam will be home by 10. ( 80% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-06; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05.
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Sam got the atm to work. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-06; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht was the original founder and only owner of SR ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-04.
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SR: DPR/Ross Ulbricht will not be found guilty on charges of computer hacking (or conspiracy). ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-02-04.
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Ross William Ulbricht will not be found guilty of any charges, whether through acquittal, or charges not being brought, or any other reason. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-02-04.
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I feel I NC'd (incl. fake) by 04:00 on the morning of the first day of Semester 2 teaching ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-03; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.
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I finish Computability & Logic or decide to move on to a later text from the list by 06:00 on Monday 2nd February ( 53% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.
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I will be in London before my first lecture of Semester 2 ( 37% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17; known on 2015-02-04; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.
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I go to a west country LW meetup before my first scheduled lecture/thingy of semester two ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-02-03; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.
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I believe house/flat broadly sorted for next year by my first scheduled lecture/thingy of semester two ( 57% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-02-03; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-04.