Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
I will be able to do a free-standing handstand for more than 15 seconds by January ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-09; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
-
My Italian deck will have over 1000 cards by January ( 90% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
-
I will upgrade my computer by January ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
-
One of my predictions will be the top prediction on 16th of January ( 30% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
-
I will have over 45 completed predictions by January ( 90% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
-
I will have over 10 due predictions on 16th January ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
-
I will have over 20 predictions to be judged by 16th January ( 40% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
-
PJ will contact me for billing info. ( 4% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-20; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16.
-
Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be tried before the end of the year, for the affair he has been indicted today. ( 80% confidence )
Created by clemux on 2014-07-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by clemux on 2015-01-16.
-
“Average Global Temperature for 2014 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.
-
The FTSE 100 will be below 7000 on January 16th ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.
-
The FTSE 100 will be valued at over 6100 in January http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/summary/summary-indices.html?index=UKX ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-11; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.
-
I'll still be alive at the end of 2014 ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by woodse on 2015-01-16.
-
A god will give me absolute unambiguous proof of his existence to me by tomorrow at noon. ( 0% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by woodse on 2015-01-16.
-
A god will give me absolute unambiguous proof of his existence to me by tomorrow at noon. ( 0% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by woodse on 2015-01-16.
-
A god will give me absolute unambiguous proof of his existence to me by tomorrow at noon. ( 0% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by woodse on 2015-01-16.
-
The top prediction (the first listed on the homepage) on 16th January won't have been decided yet ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by woodse on 2015-01-16.
-
We see Ricky as we leave BK ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17.
-
We see Ricky as we leave BK ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17.
-
Sweatshops will be regarded as an essential step to modern prosperity by 2015 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-16.
-
We remember to go into the library to book a room ( 100% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16.
-
FMK tells me she doesn't want to speak to me again ( 30% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16.
-
DAX will be above 10000 on Jan 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2014-12-18; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-01-15.
-
Spurs will beat/draw against Hornets ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-15.
-
Rockets will beat/draw against Magic ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-15; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-15.
-
Swiss Franc CHF will not be more valued than Euro EUR before end of first half of 2015. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2014-12-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-15.
-
The current truce between Israel and Hamas will hold until at least January 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-08-27; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-15.
-
The Botworld paper will cause someone from IDSIA to express some opinion about AIXItl working in only restricted environments, which that person from IDSIA says they did not possess before reading about Botworld, or the update is apparent from their previ ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by yudkowsky@gmail.com on 2014-05-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.
-
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality reaches a conclusion (not counting chapters explicitly denoted as Epilogues) before the end of 2014 and also before Homestuck finishes Act 7 (not counting “Psyche” fake-endings). ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by orthonormal on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.
-
Tottenham will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
Ipswich will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
Bradford will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup ( 49% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
According to wikipedia Jesus died at the age of 31 ( 41% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
GT's CMT is 8+ ( 4% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
76ers will beat/draw against Hawks ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14.
-
Spurs will beat/draw against Wizards ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14.
-
MA30237 exam will be cancelled ( 17% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
I start polyphasic sleeping successfully. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-01-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-01-14.
-
We will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
-
We will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
-
I will be alive at the end of this class period. ( 100% confidence )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
Celtics will beat/draw against Pelicans ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
Nets will beat/draw against Rockets ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged wrong by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
Pistons will beat/draw against Raptors ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
Bulls will beat/draw against Magic ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged wrong by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
My flight from Chicago to Roanoke will not be canceled tomorrow evening. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
I had the correct spelling. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-12.
-
I will visit both Spain and France (again) before 2015. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-12.
-
It was Lana Del Rey in BK ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-12; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
-
It was Lana Del Rey in BK ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-12; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.