By the end of this year I will overcome my weakness. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by influnza on 2014-05-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by influnza on 2015-01-06.

2014 Less Wrong Survey will have > % female than 2013 Less Wrong Survey. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.

2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.

There will be no single event causing the death of over 1 billion people (hereafter defined as an “apocalypse”) before January ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-05.

I will visit New York City before the fifth of January ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-23; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.

Republicans to gain control of the Senate at the next midterm election. ( 42% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.

I will make good predictions in 2014. (ie. 40 to 60% of my predictions with an estimate between 40 and 60% will be true.) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.

I will have visited the Cronics Institute in 2014. ( 34% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.

I will have been in Vancouver in 2014. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.

A portfolio with one third of each TWTR, CAS, and GE will do worst than the Dow Jones (not counting dividends) between February 1st 2014 and January 1st 2015 (excluded). ( 60% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.

I will attend Comiket 87. ( 90% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-16; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.

EC will attend Comiket 87. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.

The main character in Bird Man would swap the prop gun for a real one and shoot himself. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-01-04; known on 2017-05-26; judged right by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-01-04.

I will manage to enroll my son Jacek into deaf children's school, even though by law he has to have a hearing deficit, which he does not have – he has auditory verbal agnosia. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jkadlubo on 2014-02-21; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by jkadlubo on 2015-01-04.

I will re-watch 3+ of my favorite movies (rated 90th+ percentile) before 2015-01-05 ( 99% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-19; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-04.

B will accept my friend request. ( 70% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-04.

I will read 120 books in 2014. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Xammer on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Xammer on 2015-01-03.

I will still think Her is the best movie of 2014 by the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Kytael on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by Kytael on 2015-01-03.

The One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge prize goes unclaimed. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by mad on 2015-01-03.

More than $100M of venture capital will flow into Bitcoin start-ups in 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.

Man U will beat/draw against Stoke ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.

Man City will beat/draw against Sunderland ( 65% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.

There will be less than 10 wagers on this prediction by the New Year ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.

Rob Ford will not the mayor of Toronto by January 1, 2015 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-02.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.

I will do nothing serious this year about my amazing idea to revolutionize social media. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-02-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.

Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.