Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Number close Ellie2 by or on November 30th ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
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Number close RT by or on November 30th ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
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Meet up with Megan by or on 30th November. ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
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Meet up with Nicola by or on 30th November. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
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“The [ebola] case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.” – Wired ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.
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Inflation rate of the dollar is 4.2% or higher for 2014. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-15; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.
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It was Lana Del Rey in BK ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-12; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
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Liverpool will beat/draw against Sunderland ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11.
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Knicks will beat/draw against Hornets ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-09; known on 2015-01-11; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11.
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Clippers will beat/draw against Mavericks ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-09; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11.
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Arsenal win/draw against Stoke ( 85% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-11.
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Man Utd win/draw against Southampton ( 90% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-12; judged wrong by dgray on 2015-01-11.
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FMK SC CBP, NB, H talk to Flash ( 8% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-11; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-11.
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Apple will switch away from Samsung as the fab for its processors in iPhones and iPads by end of 2014 ( 65% confidence; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Reed Hastings will not be CEO of Netflix by 2015 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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It'll be reported that FBI didn't get a search warrant to access Broadwell's gmail account ( 65% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Prepares For 2014 Retail Push ( 45% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Apple's iWatch will come out before iTV ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-28; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Lakers will trade Kobe Bryant in 2013 or 2014 ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the West Texas plant blast before January 1, 2015 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Netflix still won't have random shuffle playlists or per episode playlists by end of 2014 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Tottenham win/draw against Palace ( 90% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-01-10; judged wrong by dgray on 2015-01-11.
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Slate Star Codex will get more hits in 2014 than in 2013. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-10.
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This wager will have an average estimate of 25-75% on Jan 10th, 2015. ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-01-10; judged right by adri on 2015-01-10.
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Man City will beat/draw against Everton ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-10.
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Pacers will beat/draw against Celtic. ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-08; known on 2015-01-10; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-10.
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Chelsea win against Newcastle ( 80% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-10.
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Burnley win/draw against QPR ( 80% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-10.
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I will weigh at least 140 pounds by the end of 2014 ( 30% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-07-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-10.
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I will weigh at least 135 pounds by the end of 2014 ( 70% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-07-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-10.
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Slate Star Codex will remain active until end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-10.
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By 2015-01-01, my parents will get a cat. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-12-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-10.
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If I do the first stage, I will get through to the next stage of the BIO ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-02; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-09.
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I will buy a Yamaha by January ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-09.
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Kickstarter will ban at least one high profile DYI synthetic organism project by 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2015-01-08.
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Kevin will be fired on the celebrity apprentice episode 2 ( 70% confidence )
Created by mad on 2015-01-08; known on 2015-01-09; judged right by mad on 2015-01-08.
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Spurs will beat/draw against Pistons ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-05; known on 2015-01-07; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-08.
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Bucks will beat/draw against Suns ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-05; known on 2015-01-07; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-08.
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Pelicans will beat/draw against Hornets ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06; known on 2015-01-08; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-08.
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Wizards will beat/draw against Knicks ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06; known on 2015-01-08; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-08.
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I will earn the compostela by walking the Way of Saint James before 2015. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-08.
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I will complete the Spanish skill tree on Duolingo before 2015. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-08.
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A will complete the pledge of contract 12122014. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by adri on 2014-12-12; known on 2015-01-08; judged right by adri on 2015-01-07.
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A will get no less than 1 instructorship in blok 3 or blok 4. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by adri on 2015-01-07.
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The Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-02-23; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-07.
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Five more states will legalize same sex marriage by the end of 2014 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kindrapring on 2014-03-18; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kindrapring on 2015-01-07.
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By the end of this year, I will know 50 Canberrans who read LessWrong or attend meetups regularly. (I will have personally spoken to and remember names and faces) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-01-06.
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The Legend of Korra will not be cancelled before Book 4 is finished. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by Calien on 2015-01-06.
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Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.
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A cryptocurrency that could have been created by http://coingen.bluematt.me/ achives market cap > 50% of bitcoin's in the next year. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-06; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-06.