Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
BK does hot chocolate ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-02-25.
-
HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: Harry is a horcrux ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: Quirrel is the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la Philosopher's Stone) ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: Quirrel believes that Harry's stone is the Resurrection Stone ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
No obvious bugs in code. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-23; known on 2015-02-24; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-23.
-
HPMoR: Quirell has stolen the marauder's map from the weasley twins. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by player_03 on 2015-02-22.
-
HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by player_03 on 2015-02-22.
-
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-22; known on 2015-02-23; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-22.
-
In HPMOR, Voldemort is/was at some point in the form of a disembodied spirit. ( 61% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Unknowns on 2015-02-21.
-
[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
-
It's in that PS episode ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-02-25.
-
FMK confirms pre 5 weeks wrt dd ( 15% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20.
-
BK does hot chocolate ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-02-25.
-
A serves F BK ( 5% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20.
-
G joins in at swing on Tuesday 10th February 2015. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-02-11; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-02-20.
-
Vacation predictions: I will get dengue fever. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-25; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-20.
-
I will have symptoms of Y between Feb 12 and Feb 19. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-20; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-20.
-
The laptop that Mobiquity gives to us will be ours to keep. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-02-18; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-02-20.
-
Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
-
Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
-
FC whilst still 20 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-02-19; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-02-19.
-
KC whilst still 20 ( 17% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-02-19; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-02-19.
-
HP MoR: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
-
HP MoR: Hermione alone is responsible for the attempted murder. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
-
HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
-
HP MoR: Dumbledore is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
-
In HPMOR, Snape is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
-
HP MoR: Quirrellmort is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
-
Ebola virus will be controlled in 6 months ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by kuudes on 2015-02-19.
-
UMass does not change its policy with regard to admitting Iranian nationals to certain graduate programs before the deadline of this prediction. ( 60% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2015-02-18; known on 2015-02-25; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-18.
-
T FB ( 80% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-18.
-
HPMoR: Chapter 104 posted by midnight ending February 15th Berkeley time. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-02-17; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-17.
-
Ben fixed the Internet. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-02-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-17.
-
The Duluth REU will reject me. ( 60% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2015-02-16.
-
The T will be down on Monday for at least part of the day. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-14; known on 2015-02-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-16.
-
Someone will complain about the tree. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-02-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-16.
-
>13 HBs by the time I wake up tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15.
-
>20 HBs by the time I wake up tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15.
-
I will get to level 30 in LoL by February ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-15.
-
I will get all A's in my mocks ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-15.
-
I will achieve a new PB by February ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-10; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-15.
-
Islamist militants will cause one or more deaths in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, or Italy before or at 23:59 on the 31st March 2015 (per @MWStory). ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-14.