PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

Projecter board wipeable ( 85% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

CP Friends w/ RyW (FB) ( 84% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

I was going to think closer to FMK over branch by 23:59 of that day than at 07:00 on that day, conditional on finding out what happened on that day during that day OR he claims C OR otherwise yields on C ( 90% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

He was serious about t's too much. ( 80% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

Guy was running into old house ( 60% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

MS makes it to round 2 of try-outs ( 62% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-13; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.

The Republicans will keep their US House majority after the 2014 elections ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-22.

I see BOTH by 18:00 today ( 52% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-20; known on 2014-11-20; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-21.

Ross Taylor accepts my FB friend request by or on 30th November ( 52% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-21.

AC, JD and Boris will win PWC quiz on Thursday conditional on it going ahead ( 23% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-21.

McSweeney's will NOT select my list, “Four Vegetables You Hated As A Kid But Should Give A Second Chance, Even If They Did Murder Your Family”, as a piece to publish on their website. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-04; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.

Instacart will not ask me to interview for a position. ( 90% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-25; known on 2014-12-30; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.

SIG will not offer me a position. ( 70% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-25; known on 2014-11-19; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.

Minotaurs will be a tribe in Theros. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-09-21; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19.

There will be more than 3 people at JB on Tuesday ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-16; known on 2014-11-18; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18.

We will come above 15th in the UKMT ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-19; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18.

We will come above 5th in the UKMT ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-19; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18.

We will win the UKMT ( 10% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-19; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18.

I will get through to the next stage of the UMKT ( 30% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17.

I will get at least a Bronze on the UKMT ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17.

I will get at least a Silver in the UKMT ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17.

I will get a Gold in the UKMT ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17.

Legend of Korra book 4: the technology Varrick is working involves messing with bending powers. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-10-21; known on 2014-12-30; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.

My event time is 11am tomorrow. ( 12% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.

My event time is 1pm tomorrow. ( 12% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.

My event time is 12pm tomorrow. ( 12% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.

My event time is 2pm tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged right by Calien on 2014-11-17.

HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within 2 years ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2014-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-16.

No body is found, no murder charge filed, and no confession is given regarding “MP murdering a child” story. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-11-16; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

No body is found, no murder charge filed, and no confession is given regarding “MP murdering a child” story. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-11-16; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.

I will learn to lockpick by November ( 20% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-11-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-16.

Let Me Blow Ya Mind will be the song I'm looking for. ( 70% confidence )

Created by cadda_p on 2014-11-16; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by cadda_p on 2014-11-16.

I will rate Interstellar a 9 or above. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-11-10; known on 2014-11-10; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2014-11-16.

I will be a USCF Master before I turn 23. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-13; known on 2014-11-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-15.

I will be a USCF Master before I turn 23. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-13; known on 2014-11-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-15.

I will be a USCF Master before I turn 23. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-13; known on 2014-11-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-15.

Michelle Nun takes Georgia. ( 60% confidence )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2014-11-14.

FMK mentions SH today ( 25% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14; known on 2014-11-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14.

FMK says that she isn't interested ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14; known on 2014-11-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14.

Bob Dole finished 2nd to Bill Clinton in the election for which Bill Clinton was reelected. ( 89% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14; known on 2014-11-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-14.

Alex Sammond still the leader of the SNP at the end of the year ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-11-14.

R will come to the WWRY rehearsal ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2014-11-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13.

J will come to the WWRY rehearsal ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2014-11-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13.

G will come to the WWRY rehearsal ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2014-11-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13.

Conditional on the interview process lasting until at least 11 AM, D's potential employer will treat em to lunch. ( 80% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-12; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-11-13.

Sam and Adam will still be married ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by xrisque on 2014-11-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by ren on 2016-06-16.

Shanghai is the 3rd largest city in China (including Hong Kong) ( 30% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-12; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12.

Dallas is one of the 20th largest cities in the US ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-12; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12.

Nottingham is one of the 30th largest cities in England ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-12; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-12.

Statistics

Judged Predictions