PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Fewer than 5% of the predictions on this site are about something genuinely meaningful to either the poster or anyone around them. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by reallyyesreally on 2014-12-03; known on 2015-07-02; judged wrong by Philip_W on 2014-12-13.

I'll get the Fullstack Fellowship. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-12; known on 2014-12-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-12.

gwern is between 24 and 31 years old ( 90% confidence )

Created by iajrz on 2014-12-11; known on 2014-12-12; judged right by gwern on 2014-12-11.

I will read 35 books in 2014. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.

I will read 30 books in 2014. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.

I will read 25 books in 2014. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.

I will read 50 books in 2014. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-12-10.

I will get the part of Enjolras in Les Miserables ( 75% confidence )

Created by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-12-10; judged right by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-12-10.

Function will run ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-09; known on 2014-12-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-09.

Corinna and I will watch the OC together prior to 14/12/14 ( 6% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-12-08; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-09.

I will still be regularly working on toy programming project Callan in two months. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-08; known on 2014-12-08; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-09.

Chelsea will beat/draw against Newcastle ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-01; known on 2014-12-07; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-07.

Liverpool will beat/draw against Sunderland. ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-01; known on 2014-12-07; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-07.

Arsenal will beat/draw against Stoke ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-02; known on 2014-12-07; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-07.

QPR will beat/draw against Burnley ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-02; known on 2014-12-07; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-07.

Conditional on UKIP winning the Rochester byelection, Cameron faces an official leadership challenge within a month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-12-06; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06.

We will play BN tomorrow ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-04; known on 2014-12-06; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-05.

We will play T C tomorrow ( 30% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-04; known on 2014-12-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-05.

“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-09-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-05.

M will make a prediction on H's MI grade. ( 90% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-12-04; judged wrong by adri on 2014-12-05.

I will complete the Ana Pana course in Esperanto by December. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-04.

I will manage at least one ascension in this year's /dev/null ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-15; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-04.

Audrey's greenhouse will contain real live plants in 1 month ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-12-04.

My PredictionBook clone will have basic functionality (create predictions, assign probabilities, make judgments, and a tutorial showing how to do each) before 12/15/2014. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-01; known on 2014-12-15; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-04.

I will get a reply from Trinity before Wednesday ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30; known on 2014-12-03; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-03.

If I receive it, Trinity's reply will be positive ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30; known on 2014-12-03; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-03.

Date with FMK by or on 1st December 2014 ( 41% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-12-02; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-02.

The information collected by PRISM that's listed as being from Google and Facebook will turn out to have been collected via some means other than a backdoor API/access provided by the companies themselves. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by zpinter on 2013-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-02.

I will have begun using Evernote by next week ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-01.

SR: Ross Ulbricht charges re: “conspiring to murder” will turn out not to be true ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sdr on 2013-10-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.

In the 2014 election, someone will make a serious run for Congress, Senate or Governor as a secessionist ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.

There will be just as much opposition protesting in Ukraine by March 2014 and there will have been further clashes with government forces. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by refnum on 2014-02-21; known on 2014-03-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

There will be a notable tragedy during new years celebrations somewhere in the world tonight ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

It will snow in Southern Ontario (Canada) in April ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by satayana on 2014-03-13; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

Sky City will take more than 90 days of construction time to build or will not be built at all in the next 2 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-06-19; known on 2014-06-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

>0 combat fatalities (civil unrest excluded) within Ukrainian borders ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by procran on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

Homicide rate per 100,000 in Canada to be lower in 2013 than in 2012. (Deciding source: StatCan) ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

A will submit application to DIKU instructorship before deadline. ( 85% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by adri on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of less than $40 billion per month. ( 15% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to continue purchasing mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion per month. ( 85% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of more than $45 billion per month. ( 0% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of $45 billion per month. ( 85% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of less than $45 billion per month. ( 15% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of more than $40 billion per month. ( 0% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of less than $40 billion per month. ( 25% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of more than $45 billion per month. ( 0% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of less than $45 billion per month. ( 25% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion per month. ( 75% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of $45 billion per month. ( 75% confidence )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of more than $40 billion per month. ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.

Statistics

Judged Predictions