Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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NC tomorrow ( 10% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-11; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12.
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I get one or more more bits/questions of the stats coursework done tomorrow. ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-11; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12.
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I go to GE tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-11; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-12.
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Maxmaps will no longer be working at Squad on November 9th 2014 00:01 UTC. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by eface88 on 2013-11-09; known on 2014-11-09; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-12.
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Sam and Adam will still be married ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by xrisque on 2014-11-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by ren on 2016-06-16.
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I will have done all the homework for tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-10; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-10.
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M will be contacted and mention it to me with regards to my escapade by 10th November ( 27% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03; known on 2014-11-10; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-10.
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TB at karaoke ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-11-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09.
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I will watch Episode 4 of F/SN:UBW before Episode 5 airs. ( 70% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-29; known on 2014-11-09; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-11-09.
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AW will be at karaoke tonight ( 57% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-11-08; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-09.
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Conditional on myself, PC or M not doing it, Mr Brightside will be played in 'the karaoke room' whilst I am present ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-11-08; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-09.
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The sun will rise tomorrow ( 100% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-11-08; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08.
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Number Close FMK by 1st December ( 11% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07.
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I will achieve an NC by or on 09/11 ( 51% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-02; known on 2015-10-11; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07.
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Given I do not ask him first, Priest will ask me to play PB before or on Friday ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03; known on 2014-11-07; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07.
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Simon Harris mentions the Tommy Hilfiger jumper comment when he reports on the feedback questionnaires ( 9% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-07; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07.
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I will still be alive on Friday ( 99% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-07; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-07.
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FMK will be at the CU meeting tonight ( 82% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07.
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Democrats to gain seats in the next House midterm general election. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-16; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-06.
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I see BOTH or FMK on level 3 of the library prior to 18:00 today, using the time given on my watch ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.
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I will complete sheet 6 of number theory by 15:00 ( 63% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.
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According to the values given in the Wikipedia infobox, Houston has a larger population than Austin ( 69% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.
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One or both of us sees R in BK by 300s after I go through the door. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.
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One or both of us sees R in BK by 300s after I go through the door. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.
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It's KA on the bus. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.
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It's KA on the bus. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.
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My 100% category (and someone else's) dropped, and this was because of a reversed old prediction or site change, rather than a high-confidence prediction of mine being newly judged since Thursday 23rd November 2014 ( 99% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06.
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TD did exam q's in the most recent problems class. ( 14% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06.
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It's KA on the bus. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.
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One or both of us sees R in BK by 300s after I go through the door. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.
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The Democratic Party will keep a majority in the US Senate following the 2014 Midterm Elections ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-11-05.
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Pat Quinn wins the 2014 Illinois Gubernatorial election. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by adbge on 2014-11-05.
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Assuming dems hold Senate in 2012, republicans retake Senate in 2014 mid term elections ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-05.
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Wendy Davis elected governor of Texas. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-05.
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beta_b by or on Halloween ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-04.
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The outbreak of a civil war in Bahrain between Summer and Autumn 2014 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-04.
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Je dessinerai, pour mon travail ou pour mon plaisir, au moins 2 fois par semaine en moyenne, que ce soit en congés ou au travail. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jean on 2014-08-04; known on 2014-11-04; judged wrong by Jean on 2014-11-04.
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Tony Dooley will start the break during the Metric Spaces lecture before 12:00 working by the time on my watch ( 14% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-04; known on 2014-11-04; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-04.
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The Thames is longer than 200 miles long as given in the Wikipedia info-box provided that a unique such figure is given ( 100% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03; known on 2014-11-03; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03.
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BOTH decisively self-identifies C ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03.
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I will finish the equivalent of second year physics by end 3q 2014 Specifically I will have done the exercises from the special relativity, electromagnetism and thermal physics texts. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.
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I will finish the exercises from “Thermal Physics” by end October 2014, thus completing second year physics. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-10-01; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.
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The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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Ebola will be tamed in 3 months ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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China's nuclear weapon stockpile (preferably in the table) on the WP stockpiles article is <= 400 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by BathLW on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged right by BathLW on 2014-11-02.
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Pluto's mass as given in the Wikipedia infobox (assuming a unique such figure is given) is less than or equal to 5*10^12kg ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by BathLW on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by BathLW on 2014-11-02.
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Created by BathLW on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by BathLW on 2014-11-02.
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G.R.R. Martin is 54 colloquial years old or older ( 32% confidence )
Created by BathLW on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged right by BathLW on 2014-11-02.
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Harry Potter main book series sales can be confirmed by us in under 5 minutes to be 850 million or greater. ( 28% confidence )
Created by BathLW on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by BathLW on 2014-11-02.
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KnossOS will get more than 1 upvote on at least 1 sub ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30; known on 2014-11-02; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-02.