PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Man City will beat/draw against West Brom ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21; known on 2014-12-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.

Sunderland will beat/draw against Hull City ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21; known on 2014-12-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.

Everton will beat/draw against Stoke City ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21; known on 2014-12-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.

Tottenham will beat/draw against Leicester City ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21; known on 2014-12-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.

Liverpool will beat/draw against Burnley ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21; known on 2014-12-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.

The Wizards will beat/draw against the Knicks ( 53% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-24; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.

Thunder will beat/draw against Spurs ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-24; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.

Heat will beat/draw against Cavaliers ( 65% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-24; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.

Bulls will beat/draw against Lakers ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-24; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.

We will go busking by Christmas ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.

I will make at least one discussion level post on Less Wrong before January 15th ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-05; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27.

I will get an A in Spectral Theory this semester ( 85% confidence )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-12-26.

I will get an A in Algebraic Geometry this semester ( 70% confidence )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-12-26.

Skimmable Videos makes the front page of HN ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-26; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-26.

I will be able to intentionally induce another lucid dream within the next two nights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by brightcloud on 2014-12-23; known on 2014-12-26; judged wrong by brightcloud on 2014-12-26.

Skimmable Videos makes the front page of HN ( 20% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-26; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-26.

Wiki gun will be successfully complete in 2 years ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-28; known on 2014-09-23; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-26.

I will make my return flight from San Francisco. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by brightcloud on 2014-12-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-25.

College Inside View will succeed ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-25; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-25.

I will still be alive by Christmas ( 100% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2014-12-25; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-25.

I will go to Parkrun on Christmas ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-25.

I will finish the sequences by December ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-25.

At least 40% of my Calc I class will get at least one bonus question. ( 55% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-25.

Sherlock season 4 will be out by Christmas. ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by shadow1537 on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-25.

Mad Max 4 will be released by Christmas 2014 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-14; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-25.

I will have my students' final grades in by December 21st. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2014-12-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-22.

Man City will beat/draw against Crystal Palace ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-15; known on 2014-12-21; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21.

West Ham will beat/draw against Leicester City ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-15; known on 2014-12-21; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21.

I will do the gig on the 20th ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-05; known on 2014-12-21; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21.

My laptop will still be properly functional and in use six months from now. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-17; known on 2014-12-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-12-19.

Everyone will turn next up to the next rehearsal ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-17; known on 2014-12-18; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-18.

Aleksa is my secret santa. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by azax1 on 2014-12-10; known on 2014-12-17; judged right by azax1 on 2014-12-18.

Larry Summers won't be Fed Chairman in 2014 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-12-18.

I will spend the full 3 hours on the BIO ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14; known on 2014-12-17; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

My religious opinions will be unchanged by December ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

I will achieve a new PB before December ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-10; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

I will be level 11 in Italian by December ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

The proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

R will be at Monday's rehearsal ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.

A will get no less than 90% on Top WA3. ( 75% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-12-12; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by adri on 2014-12-16.

Jon Stewart begins repping full communism. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by tedks on 2013-12-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by tedks on 2014-12-15.

Someone (Skyler probably) goes ahead and implements the match maker service and suddenly posts it within a week. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by deskglass on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by deskglass on 2014-12-14.

Crystal Palace will beat/draw against Stoke ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-10; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

Southampton will beat/draw against Burnley ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-10; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

Man City will beat/draw against Leicester ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-09; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

Man City will beat/draw against Leicester ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-12; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

Sunderland will beat/draw against West Ham ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-09; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

Sunderland will beat/draw against West Ham ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-12; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

I will be able to fix Dolphin from within Dolphin after installing it. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-14.

There will be a planned meetup with FMK during the week commencing 8/12 ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-12-13.

Statistics

Judged Predictions