PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Comprehensive immigration reform will get through the House of Representitives, that has a) path to legalizations for undocumented immigrants given they pay back tax debt b) skill/ merit based immigration decisions, and a deprioritization of family connec ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by hucavanagh on 2013-07-01; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-02.

I will die on HabitRPG this month. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-11-02.

I will have reached a streak of at least 14 on my HabitRPG daily for making predictions on predictionbook at least once by end of October. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-11-02.

Number close LS by or on November 30th ( 16% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-01.

No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.

I am accepted to Y Combinator with my idea for an EEG framework: http://synaptitude.me/, Winter 2015 ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lettergram on 2014-10-05; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-11-01.

Elon Musk is from the USA ( 95% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31.

Elon Musk is from the North-East, California, or outside of the US ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31.

Elon Musk is from California or New York ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31.

Venezuela Presidential Elecctions again before August 30 2013 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ricardo Del Rio on 2013-04-22; known on 2013-08-30; judged wrong by Philip_W on 2014-10-31.

The queen is older than 80 ( 95% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30.

The queen is older than 83 ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30.

The Queen is older than 88 ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30.

BMR will not be operating in 12 months ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-10-30.

Sheep will not be operating in 12 months ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-10-30.

I will finish reading and doing representative problems from chapters 1-4 of Ideals, Varieties, and Algorithms by David Cox by the midterm on 10/29/2014. (I started 10/16/2014) ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-16; known on 2014-10-29; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-29.

50 or more candidates turn up to the first session of tryouts today ( 55% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-29; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-29.

The meeting tomorrow is at the time I think it is. ( 80% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-10-29; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-10-28.

C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will hit Mars ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-03-02; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-10-28.

My ASUS X99 motherboard will burn out some component or otherwise suffer electrically-induced damaged, in the first 30 days of operation ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-27.

I will do >10 pomos today. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-27.

I will do 5-10 pomos (inclusive) today. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-26.

I will do less than 5 pomos today. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-26.

I will talk to my parents and sister on skype/hangouts/whatever for less than 1 hour today. ( 70% confidence )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-26.

Tuxedage's crush will agree to date him, but he later won't really feel like he's dating her. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Betawolf on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-24; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-10-26.

Tuxedage will face bitter rejection and defeat as he asks his crush to date him. ( 66% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-10-26.

When I test the effect of caffeine consumption on sleep quality, I will find a significant effect for 1 can of coke (32mg) regardless of time of day of consumption. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nsavir on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-10-25.

There won't be any questions about street harassment in the 2014 Less Wrong survey. ( 97% confidence )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-10-25.

I will go to N's thing tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-25; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-25.

HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.

Bath #15: The endowment given on Wikipedia for the endowment of the University of Bath is greater than or equal to £317.2 million. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )