PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

Clojure will move up in the rankings of The Transparent Language Popularity Index by the end of 2013. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
The Swiss Basic Income initiative will pass the vote and be implemented. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-06-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
Murder rate has bottomed in the US (2013 murder rate > 2011 according to fbi stats http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr) ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-31; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
This year will DEFINITELY BE BETTER than the previous year. Last year really sucked. Please guys, work to make this real! Work to make this year RULE! ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Pandster on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
Gwern will teach/contribute/ta a mooc within 2 years ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by paulharris on 2012-09-22; known on 2014-09-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
I will still be using this in a year. ( 65% confidence )

Created by alecbrooks on 2013-11-18; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
At least 10% of MRI images uploaded to radiopaedia.org will be of resolution greater than 512×512px (upscaling doesn't count). ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Matt on 2011-10-19; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
I will get a number directly from a street approach by or on 1st December ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.
NC probability girl by or on 1st December 2014 ( 37% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.
Date by or on 30/11 ( 40% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.
Number Close BOTH by 1st December ( 7% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.
HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014 ( 28% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by on 2014-12-01.
QPR will beat or draw against Leicester ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.
Arsenal will beat or draw against West Brom ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.
Liverpool will beat/draw against Stoke ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.
Swansea will beat/draw against Crystal Palace ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.
Man U will beat/draw against Hull ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.
I will go to Dawson's today ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.
The mid-market exchange rate will average below $1.275/€ (i.e. less than 1.275 dollars can be bought per euro) over november 2014. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Philip_W on 2014-10-20; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by Philip_W on 2014-11-30.
The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by tdhellma on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-30.
The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by tdhellma on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-30.
The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by tdhellma on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-30.
It was two of the blocks ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-30.
It was two of the blocks ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-30.
Aston Villa will beat/draw against Burnley ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by dpchalmers on 2014-11-29.
The pimping squad and I will not move onto another club ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-26; known on 2014-11-29; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-29.
I have already received my PR time ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29; known on 2014-11-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29.
If I go to PR tomorrow, I will get a new PB. ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-28; known on 2014-11-29; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29.
I will go to PR tomorrow ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-28; known on 2014-11-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29.
A will submit application to math instructorship before deadline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by adri on 2014-11-28.
A will be at the lesson ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-11-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-28.
I will publicly record at least one prediction per month, at least until the end of 2014. ( 78% confidence )

Created by etarletons on 2014-05-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-11-26.
It was two of the blocks ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-30.
I will finish CA today ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-26.
There will be more than 3 people at JB ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-18; known on 2014-11-25; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25.
I watch UC and OC tonight ( 75% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-25.
MS gets 10/10 on problem sheet 7 ( 83% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-25.
I still have no replies from the press ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24.
Rosanna will not say a word to me by or on 10:35 ( 58% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24.
Will be moved to Bay Area in the next 3 months ( 33% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-11-24.
Assassination Market will still be up in 1 year. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-24.
Stoke will beat Burnley ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-11; known on 2014-11-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.
Chelsea will beat or draw against West Brom ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-11; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.
Man City will beat Swansea ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-11; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.
I will win this next game ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-20; known on 2014-11-20; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23.
Zerocoin as functioning altcoin network within a year ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 1 year ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
“Warlords of Khanar” will be the name of the MTG block codenamed “Huey”, “Dewey” and “Louie”, and/or one of the sets of that block. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22.
2nd date with I ( 57% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-09; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.
I go to GE ( 45% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-22.