Mars nodules discovered on 9/14/12 will be analyzed and described as carbonate ooids in at least one refereed journal within a year. ( 25% confidence )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-09-15; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

NL: The second Rutte cabinet will last less than 2 years ( 70% confidence )

Created by dhoe on 2012-11-18; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

Extreme market volatility in 2014 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-02-28; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

The price of bitcoin will have fallen below $200 by January. ( 25% confidence )

Created by erikbjare on 2014-10-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by erikbjare on 2015-01-01.

MH370 confirmed as landed on a runway anywhere in the world. ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by procran on 2014-03-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.

Silverlight 6 (or higher version) will be released for Windows before 2015 ( 42% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

I will switch to a primary non-Windows desktop or laptop before 2015 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

I will switch to Emacs as my primary editor for writing code, before 2015 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

I will write a > 200 line non-web/WebView mobile application before 2015 ( 20% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

I will switch to a primary music player that is not foobar2000, before 2015 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Massive (20%+ of network) blockchain split (>=120 blocks) in BitCoin before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

“200 million [Ubuntu] users by 2015” -Shuttleworth's goal ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

The Witness will be released and playable by the public on at least one platform before 2015 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.

Bitcoin falls to a value of less than 1$ per Bitcoin by the end of 2014. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

Ebola outbreak kills more than 30000 people by the end of the year ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by phreeza on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

By end of 2014, DA Carmen Ortiz will no longer be US Attorney for Massachusetts. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

Spotify will overtake iTunes as the main source of music distribution in the United States, United Kingdom and Ireland. ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by DillonNolan on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

By the end of 2014, the market for virtual reality headsets will exceed a million units. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2014. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

Manmohan Singh will be reelected as prime minister of India in 2014 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

After Steve Ballmer Leaves Microsoft, the new stock price will nose dive. This will be because the incoming CEO will realize the mess he was left to clean up. By the end of 2014, the price will be around $30/share- (possibly – in the high $20's) ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

The total market cap of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will beat Bitcoin's market cap at some point during the year. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

BBRY will double in value in 2014 to $14/share. John Chen will become a legendary CEO becoming known for his turnaround efforts. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-30; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.

Half-Life 3 is released in 2014. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by tedks on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.

I will have completed level 20 on the PC by Wednesday ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-28; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.

I will have completed the PC by Wednesday ( 30% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-28; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.

“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.

23andMe will offer >=550k SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.

'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

Bitcoin suffers a crash by the end of 2014, defined as falling to below 20% of its all-time high. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.

I will have completed a PhD degree in Electrical Engineering by the end of 2014. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-12-31.

Amazon will purchase 50% of PayPal from Ebay by the end of 2014. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dovfischer on 2013-07-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2014-12-31.

Canonical will be acquired before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.

The Willy Brandt Airport Berlin will open before the end of 2014 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by dhoe on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.

Intrade will be open for business by 31 December 2014 ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by najdorf on 2014-12-31.

A will complete BM goal without derail under rules dated 2014-12-26. ( 60% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-12-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by adri on 2014-12-29.