Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The highest land area given in the infobox for Russia is 325,000,000(km^2) or more ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of Google results for 'Monopoly' (conditional on a unique figure being given) is 4,000,000 or more ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of Google results for 'Monopoly' (conditional on a unique figure being given) is 4,000,000 or more ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The greatest speed of a barracuda that is given on its WIkipedia page (conditional on being given) is 73MPH or higher ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The greatest speed of a barracuda that is given on its WIkipedia page (conditional on being given) is 73MPH or higher ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The greatest height given on Wikipedia for Ben Nevis in the infobox (conditional on such a height being given) is 4500 feet or more ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The greatest height given on Wikipedia for Ben Nevis in the infobox (conditional on such a height being given) is 4500 feet or more ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The population of Bath as listed on Wikipedia is 85,000 or higher ( 58% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The population of Bath as listed on Wikipedia is 85,000 or higher ( 58% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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Tommy Hilfiger (the company) was established in 1977 or later ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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Tommy Hilfiger (the company) was established in 1977 or later ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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Geoff Smith was born on 1st October 1954 or earlier ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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Geoff Smith was born on 1st October 1954 or earlier ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number milligrams of sodium in a bottle of water is less than or equal to 12.5mg ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number milligrams of sodium in a bottle of water is less than or equal to 12.5mg ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of undergraduates at the University of Bath given on the Wikipedia page is less than of equal to 8850 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of undergraduates at the University of Bath given on the Wikipedia page is less than of equal to 8850 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of countries in Africa is 58+/-1 conditional on clear-cut answer. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of countries in Africa is 58+/-1 conditional on clear-cut answer. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of episodes of The O.C. is 92 or 96, including specials ( 93% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The highest land area given in the infobox for Russia is 325,000,000(km^2) or more ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of Google results for 'Monopoly' (conditional on a unique figure being given) is 4,000,000 or more ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The greatest speed of a barracuda that is given on its WIkipedia page (conditional on being given) is 73MPH or higher ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The greatest height given on Wikipedia for Ben Nevis in the infobox (conditional on such a height being given) is 4500 feet or more ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The population of Bath as listed on Wikipedia is 85,000 or higher ( 58% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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Tommy Hilfiger (the company) was established in 1977 or later ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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Geoff Smith was born on 1st October 1954 or earlier ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number milligrams of sodium in a bottle of water is less than or equal to 12.5mg ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of undergraduates at the University of Bath given on the Wikipedia page is less than of equal to 8850 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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The number of episodes in the OC is either 92 or 96 ( 65% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02.
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The number of countries in Africa is 58+/-1 conditional on clear-cut answer. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.
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I will get the position with Venture For America. ( 25% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-09-27; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-10-02.
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I will have finished the second season of Orphan Black by next Monday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-09-22; known on 2014-09-29; judged right by Calien on 2014-10-02.
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I will take at least 24 hours to read the responses to my latest forum post. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-09-22; known on 2014-09-24; judged right by Calien on 2014-10-02.
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I wash the towel by the midnight starting Sunday 28th ( 65% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-01.
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Second appeal reverses decision ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-11-14; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-01.
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waveman will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 3Q 2014. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-01.
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SR: <30 related arrests within a year. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-08; known on 2014-10-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-10-01.
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A third Tory>UKIP defection before the Tory conference ends. ( 60% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-10-01.
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I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 3Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-07-16; known on 2014-10-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-10-01.
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My son will have his first tooth by the end of September. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by Mike on 2014-09-30.
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Futures trading all done and in place with all the high priority strategies done by end September 2014 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-09-30.
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The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, or USA Today will publish an article concerning Jonathan Foster's murder before 2014. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-29.
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Islamic terrorist attack in the UK kills at least one this month. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-29.
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RUB/USD will reach 39/1 (according to CBR) at least once before 2015. ( 40% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-29; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-29.
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Bellroy and Trike will move from their West Melbourne office to the new Fitzroy office on 26th Sept. ( 91% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Lina on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-27; judged right by nadia on 2014-09-29.
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My classmates will be even cooler IRL. ( 60% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-09-09; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-28.
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Housmates about to set the fire alarm off ( 80% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2014-09-27; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27.
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At least one Tory MP defects to UKIP by the end of this parliament. ( 80% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27.
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At least one Tory MP defects to UKIP before the end of their party conference. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-26; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27.