Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
UTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014. ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-09-09.
-
Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-09-09.
-
I will make at least 5 new Facebook friends before Monday. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-08; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-09-08.
-
The Twitter user I reported for abuse (@FilmCriticOne) will still have an active Twitter account one month from today. ( 84% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-05; known on 2014-09-05; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-09-05.
-
I will hand in every assignment between now and the mid semester break on time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-09-05; judged right by Calien on 2014-09-05.
-
Pyschbuddying posts: 'Lemme know in comments' gets a witty 'No' or similar. ( 10% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-06-11; known on 2014-06-19; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-04.
-
Either Microsoft will sue Google using a Nokia patent, or Google will sue Microsoft using a Motorola patent. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2013-09-03; known on 2014-09-03; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-03.
-
I'll find this site useful and keep using even one month later. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-09-03.
-
Within 1 month, I'll be showing our prototype iPhone app to people not in our development team. ( 30% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-09-03.
-
Manchester United will sign 3 players before Sept 2nd ( 15% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-09-03.
-
Cloud 9 wins 2014 NA LCS Summer Finals. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02.
-
LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 2 years, ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-09-02.
-
My classmates will be even cooler IRL. ( 60% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-09-09; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-28.
-
TSM wins at least one game in the 2014 Summer NA LCS Championship match. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02.
-
I will intern at a financial firm this summer. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-09-01.
-
I will have made 10 predictions relating to events in my own life by September 1st, 2014. ( 65% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-23; known on 2014-09-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-09-01.
-
I will not live at home next year. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-01.
-
Friend ___ moves out of his apartment by the end of August ( 35% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-05; known on 2014-08-31; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-31.
-
I will come to Moscow LW Meetup on 2014-08-31. ( 50% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-08-31; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-31.
-
Tammy Pham will not regret taking the summer position in New York rather than San Francisco. ( 80% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-04-04; known on 2014-08-31; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-08-31.
-
Manchester United will sign 2 players before September 2nd. ( 50% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-08-31.
-
SH will run a blinded randomized self-experiment of Methylene Blue within a year. ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-08-25; known on 2014-08-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-08-29.
-
Cécile Kyenge will resign before the regular end of her mandate ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-29; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-08-28.
-
Barack Obama will do the Ice Bucket Challenge this year. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-08-27.
-
I will still use an Android-based mobile by 2015. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-08-27.
-
Manchester United will sign exactly1 player before September 2nd. ( 15% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-08-27.
-
Within 2 years, the global usage share of IE (all versions), will be below 20%, as measured by statcounter.com ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2012-08-25; known on 2014-08-26; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-26.
-
Assange leaves the embassy within a week ( 10% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-25; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-08-25.
-
I will get 5+ alumni messages by the end of this week (currently have 4) ( 40% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-24; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-24.
-
August 2014 hard drive prices: 74-84 GB/$ ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2014-08-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-08-23.
-
What color underwear random person is wearing. 95% white, black, pink, nude/brown, red, green, blue/navy, purple, orange, multicolor. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-23; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
-
I will get offered both the Macy's and Autism aide position ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-06; known on 2014-08-20; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
-
Out of 10 asked at the reunion, 0-9 people know my name without prompting. (mistyped) ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-24; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
-
Out of 10 asked at the reunion, 2-3 people knowing my name without prompting. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-23; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
-
I will have 2000 Anki cards within 6 months in my collections (it's only 12 a day) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-07-19; judged wrong by atroche on 2014-08-23.
-
My wife's debit card is in the bedroom ( 85% confidence )
Created by Ixiel on 2014-08-13; known on 2014-08-20; judged right by Ixiel on 2014-08-22.
-
I will pass the computational neuroscience program on Coursera ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-12-27; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2014-08-22.
-
Nawaz Sharif is widely believed to still be in PM house. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-21; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-08-21.
-
Given that Brienne was free of social anxiety on May 20 2014, she will be free of social anxiety on August 20 2014 as well. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-08-21; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-08-21.
-
For my 2012 PB predictions, my actual accuracy will be at least 10% higher than the average certainty assigned to those predictions by other users. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-21.
-
I'll find out the truth about Soka-Gakkai International in 7 days. ( 1% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2014-08-20; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-20.
-
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2014-08-20; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-20.
-
Sheep Marketplace will cease operating within a year. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-17; known on 2014-10-17; judged right by Grognor on 2014-08-20.
-
Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.
-
Brienne will be free of social anxiety in 4 months of this posting. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-08-20; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-08-20.
-
Manchester United will not sign any players before September 2nd. ( 10% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-08-19.
-
SimplementCaro will not annoy me in the next hour. ( 94% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-08-20; judged right by Mati on 2014-08-19.
-
I'll finish Computer graphics course (20 hours course) in 3 days. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-15; known on 2014-08-18; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-18.
-
“Her insan doğar, yaşar, ve ölür.” is meaningful and true. ( 98% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-18; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18.
-
I'm going to have my hair cut short in 2 weeks. ( 30% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-17; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-17.