Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will be a finalist for the MA365 mission. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-09-26.
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I would have to rejig my unit choices ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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Barack Obama is over fifty years old ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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Global population is over 7.1 billion (Wikipedia) ( 68% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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Global GDP PPP is over $100 trillion (Wikipedia) ( 44% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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The population of Nigeria is over 400 million (Wikipedia) ( 63% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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The Princess Bride has 90+% approval from Top Critics on Rotten Tomatoes ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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The current or most recent season of The Simpsons was season 25 ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-25; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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Nick Bostrom replies to my comment on his Reddit AMA ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25; known on 2014-09-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-25.
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The owner of emmayouarenext.com will release nude photos of Emma Watson when the countdown expires. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Taymon on 2014-09-23; known on 2014-09-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06.
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The owner of emmayouarenext.com will release nude photos of Emma Watson when the countdown expires. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Taymon on 2014-09-23; known on 2014-09-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06.
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Blizzcon 2014 will announce Titan, a game made by Blizzard Activision. During the announcement they will reveal that the game does not have a subscription fee, but shares one. They will plan to tie in WoW's sub fee with Titans sub fee, to make 1 sub fee.. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Dodgson on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-06-02; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-24.
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Ebola doesn't cause more than 2500 deaths by the end of the year ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2014-09-23.
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His keys were somewhere trivial ( 90% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-23; known on 2014-09-23; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-23.
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iPhone 6's will have a larger screen than iPhone 5's. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by eren on 2013-12-04; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by eren on 2014-09-20.
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Labour's current civil war (progress/unite) will cause the formation of a successful and large second party. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-11-11; judged wrong by thostian on 2014-09-20.
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6 beats 12 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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11 beats 5 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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10 beats 4 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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3 beats 9 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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8 beats 2 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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7 beats 2 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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NO will win the Scottish Referendum by 5% ±3% ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by thostian on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-14; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The margin of victory in the scottish referendum is less than 1%. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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NO will win the Scottish Referendum by 5% ±3% ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by thostian on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-14; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The scottish referendum vote will be 50-60% yes ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The scottish referendum vote will be less than 50% yes ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The scottish referendum vote will be >60% yes ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Scotland will vote NO on independence. ( 74% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum ( 28% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Scotland will vote Yes on independence with a margin of less than 5%. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by chalicier on 2014-09-18; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by chalicier on 2014-09-19.
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Decommissioning of extract will be completed without issue. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-18; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-19.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a month ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-09-18; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-18.
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iWatch will not be called iWatch. ( 60% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged right by Quintrino on 2014-09-18.
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I will be recovered from my illness within two days ( 80% confidence )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-02; judged wrong by thostian on 2014-09-16.
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I will get into my first choice for university ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-20; judged right by thostian on 2014-09-16.
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Our old hot sauce was not Durkee brand. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-16.
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I will submit exactly 1 paper by Sept 15 ( 40% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-15; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-09-16.
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RUB/USD will reach 38/1 (according to CBR) at least once before 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-29; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-16.
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I finish all five items on my “To Do Today” list tomorrow. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-16; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-16.
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Malcome Turnbull will be the next PM of Australia? ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dkidston on 2012-02-08; known on 2013-11-16; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-16.
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The place I will be living in in Edinburgh in 2014/15 academic year will have been booked (or near equivalent) before I have landed in the UK. ( 55% confidence )
Created by azatris on 2014-08-16; known on 2014-09-15; judged wrong by azatris on 2014-09-15.
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[MtG] The “manlands” from Worldwake will be reprinted in Khans of Tarkir. ( 85% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2014-09-06; known on 2014-09-26; judged wrong by Serge on 2014-09-15.
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I go to swamp meet sunday ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-15; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-09-15.
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Au minimum 3/4 de l'équipe BOSS est présente à tout moment, en particulier pendant l'été ( 30% confidence )
Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-10; known on 2014-09-15; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2014-09-15.
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I make at least $20 bucks profit at the swamp meet tomorrow. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-14; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-09-14.
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At least 20 people, total, will come to the next 2 YEA meetings. ( 40% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-09-12; known on 2014-09-14; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-09-14.
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There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
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It has snowed at least once in Calgary by September 30 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-09-30; judged right by minilodon on 2014-09-09.