PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I get an interview from WHS in the coming week (until 2nd) ( 25% confidence )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-27; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-02.

My friends friend from Taiwan is actually not coming to Tokyo today… ( 10% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

My friend will Skype me within 2 hours. ( 50% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

I'll decide to take shower before I go to bed because I smells. ( 90% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

I keep entering my prediction until 1 hour later. ( 30% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

My headache will be gone in one hour ( 80% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

I'll be eating supper in one hour ( 80% confidence )

Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02.

ArenaNet will sponsor a Guild Wars 2 PvP tournament with grand prize valued at at least $100,000 in 2013. ( 66% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2013-05-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-08-01.

My personal website will be up-and-running again by 2014 ( 15% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-08-01.

House of Cards: There will be another death by the end of the second season. ( 64% confidence )

Created by booradleytron on 2014-07-23; known on 2014-08-16; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-07-31.

30 Jul Block C will take 90min to complete +/-10min ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-30; known on 2014-07-31; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-31.

30 Jul Block B will take 130min to complete +/- 10min ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-30; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-31.

Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.

I will get a job after I graduate from high school. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Snowshi on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-07-30; judged wrong by Snowshi on 2014-07-30.

A 'human organ' grown in a non-human animal will be successfully transplanted into a human within 1 year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-06-22; known on 2014-06-22; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-07-29.

A 'human organ' grown in a non-human animal will be successfully transplanted into a human within 1 year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-06-22; known on 2014-06-22; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-07-29.

I will get a tax refund this year ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mad on 2014-07-08; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-07-29.

Alberto Contador to win the Tour de France 2014 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-07-27; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-07-27.

Tony Blair will pick a fight over some public issue with Bill Clinton in the next 2 years ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2014-07-26; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-27.

Jaedong (zerg) will win this match (judged from 13:00): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yl5VXt7q9co ( 55% confidence )

Created by blubble on 2014-07-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by blubble on 2014-07-26.

Zerg player will win this match (judged at 32:00): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6vTPD1A2Zpw ( 60% confidence )

Created by blubble on 2014-07-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by blubble on 2014-07-26.

I will not watch any of The Americans until July 26 2014 ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-07-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-26.

Cure will win this match (judged from the 7:30 mark): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYhoC_5p-to ( 70% confidence )

Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by blubble on 2014-07-25.

SoS will win this match (judged from the 8:30 minute mark): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=43pzTMa1m_k ( 60% confidence )

Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by blubble on 2014-07-25.

There will be a university/college-affiliated study on polyphasic sleep that begins within a year. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-07-22; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-07-23.

Team NewBee will be DOTA2 Champions of The International 2014 ( 60% confidence )

Created by qznc on 2014-07-21; known on 2014-07-22; judged right by qznc on 2014-07-22.

Liam Fox will return to a Cabinet post in the next reshuffle ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-07-21.

I'll get RCJ their numbers before close of business Wednesday. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Matt on 2014-07-14; known on 2014-07-16; judged wrong by Matt on 2014-07-16.

A wsop bracket winner makes the November 9. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by cdf12345 on 2014-07-08; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-16.

Blizzcon 2014 will announce Titan, a game made by Blizzard Activision. During the announcement they will reveal that the game does not have a subscription fee, but shares one. They will plan to tie in WoW's sub fee with Titans sub fee, to make 1 sub fee.. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Dodgson on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-06-02; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-24.

Blizzcon 2014 will announce Titan, a game made by Blizzard Activision. During the announcement they will reveal that the game does not have a subscription fee, but shares one. They will plan to tie in WoW's sub fee with Titans sub fee, to make 1 sub fee.. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Dodgson on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-06-02; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-24.

Junker will be President of the European Commission within 2 months. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-10; known on 2014-08-10; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-07-15.

It is not going to rain tonight ( 85% confidence )

Created by Ixiel on 2014-07-14; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by Ixiel on 2014-07-15.

I will lose at least three pounds in the first three weeks of attempting the Shangri-La Diet. ( 20% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2014-06-14; known on 2014-07-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2014-07-15.

Josh will be on time ( 55% confidence )

Created by Ixiel on 2014-07-14; known on 2014-07-14; judged wrong by Ixiel on 2014-07-14.

I will get my wanikani review queue down to 0 any time before July 14 2014 11am Pacific ( 100% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-12; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-07-14.

Germany will defeat Argentina in their World Cup game today. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-13.

I will pass the exams for every module I take this semester ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-07-13.

Brazil will win the 2014 soccer world cup ( 30% confidence )

Created by albert on 2011-12-07; known on 2014-07-14; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-07-13.

I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12.

I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12.

I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12.

I will be able to do 20 full range pull-ups by end 2014. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2014-07-12.

USD price in RUB will reach 34 and start to raise again in 2 months ( 10% confidence )

Created by influnza on 2014-05-10; known on 2014-07-10; judged wrong by influnza on 2014-07-11.

Netherlands will qualify for the final ( 60% confidence )

Created by dgray on 2014-07-09; known on 2014-07-10; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-07-10.

Brazil will win the 2014 world cup ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by cdf12345 on 2014-07-08; known on 2014-07-14; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.

In 12 months (End of Q1 2013), unit sales of iPad 3 LTE + iPad 2 Wifi > iPad 3 Wifi ( 45% confidence; 10 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-08; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.

North Korea will have a working nuclear power plant by end of 2013. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services will change the unsolicited long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of France (from 'AA+') or on the Federal Republic of Germany (from 'AAA') till February 1st. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by cyblifeformnode on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.

There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.

Statistics

Judged Predictions