Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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When I finish my alcohol and mathematical creativity experiments, I will find that I can solve 10+% more problems under the influence of some dosage of alcohol than sober ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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When I finish my alcohol and mathematical creativity experiments, I will find that I can solve 10+% fewer problems under the influence of some dosage of alcohol than sober ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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I will not do the alhohol/math experiments ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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Thursday 16th: No flakage, conditional on text as discussed. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-16.
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Monica will live in a different zipcode in 2014. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-15; known on 2014-10-15; judged right by freyley on 2014-10-15.
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'collinear' is a recognized spelling on Wiktionary (possibly e.g. British English). ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-10-14; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-14.
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We'll make it to a year. ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-26; known on 2014-10-14; judged right by reesarose on 2014-10-14.
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I will work out today. ( 100% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-10-13; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-10-13.
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I will be on time for dim sum. ( 80% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-10-11; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-10-12.
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I will be in the process of deleting my Facebook account before the end of 2013, and I will not use Facebook during 2014. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-12.
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Conditional on us going, someone (possibly including Ross) picks Mr Brightside ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-11; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-12.
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Conditional on us going. Ross plays Senorita i.e. he does it or nobody else pick it ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-11; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-12.
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qwerty314 and KnaveOfAllTrades are Miles and Daniel. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Twey on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-10-13; judged wrong by Twey on 2014-10-11.
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qwerty314 and KnaveOfAllTrades are Miles and Daniel. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Twey on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-10-13; judged wrong by Twey on 2014-10-11.
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qwerty314 and KnaveOfAllTrades are Miles and Daniel. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Twey on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-10-13; judged wrong by Twey on 2014-10-11.
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Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-10-11.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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I will have at least one pint of beer with Dan on Friday afternoon. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-10; judged right by Mike on 2014-10-10.
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UKIP wins a seat at or before the next general election. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-27; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-10-10.
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UKIP wins the Heywood and Middleton by-election ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-24; known on 2014-10-09; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-10-10.
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UKIP wins Clacton by-election ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-28; known on 2014-10-10; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-10-10.
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I will catch up on my Mnemosyne reviews by the end of September. ( 5% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-10-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-08.
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silver.com is a company website ( 80% confidence )
Created by Silver on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by Silver on 2014-10-07.
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The metric spaces lecturer says a sentence containing 'I claim' during the two hour lecture today ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The number of undergraduates at Bath Spa, conditional on such a figure being given and being unique, is 6500 or greater ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The number of undergraduates at Bath Spa, conditional on such a figure being given and being unique, is 6500 or greater ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The longest figure given on the Wikipedia info-box, conditional on it being given, for the length of the M25 is longer that 116 miles ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The longest figure given on the Wikipedia info-box, conditional on it being given, for the length of the M25 is longer that 116 miles ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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Avril Lavigne is colloquially 30 years old ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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Avril Lavigne is colloquially 30 years old ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The age of Kylie Minogue is 46 years old ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The age of Kylie Minogue is 46 years old ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The age of Kylie Minogue is 46 years old ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The age of Kylie Minogue is 46 years old ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The number of undergraduates at Bath Spa, conditional on such a figure being given and being unique, is 6500 or greater ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The longest figure given on the Wikipedia info-box, conditional on it being given, for the length of the M25 is longer that 116 miles ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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Avril Lavigne is colloquially 30 years old ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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The age of Kylie Minogue is 46 years old ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-10-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-07.
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SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 1 year. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-04; known on 2014-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-05.
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Price per barrel of oil hits $110 by the end of summer. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-10-05.
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I will have 35 subscribers to my mailing list by August 1, 2014. Current count is 21, on June 28. Website: http://austingwalters.com ( 80% confidence )
Created by lettergram on 2014-06-28; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by lettergram on 2014-10-05.
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SR: the NYC trial will finish within a year ( 33% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-05.
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SR: the Maryland trial will finish within a year. ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-05.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
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Microsoft will start selling Windows 9 by the end of 2014. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Microsoft will start selling Windows 9 by the end of 2014. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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The highest land area given in the infobox for Russia is 325,000,000(km^2) or more ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-02; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-02.