PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

14/14 of my students will submit work on Wednesday that fulfils the minimum requirements. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-05.

2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.

Next tuesday, at least one member in my group will not come before 6pm. ( 70% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-03; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-03.

The price of petrol at the pump will reach $1.55 at some point before the end of April – http://bit.ly/eUr3eE ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.

I will finish leave_command today ( 80% confidence )

Created by yurifury on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-02; judged right by yurifury on 2011-05-02.

The final funnel form will be elliptical ( 40% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-02; known on 2011-05-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.

The final funnel form will be oval ( 52% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-02; known on 2011-05-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.

Liverpool will defeat Newcastle tonight. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-01.

The result of the match between Arsenal and Man United will be a draw. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-05-01.

I will get up at 7.30 am tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-01.

“About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone.” —Michael Wolff ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2011-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.

I will study all night after finish work during weekends. ( 90% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-29; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-05-01.

I will finish my elective assignment within this week. ( 90% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-05-01.

The coastal trail will take less than 5 hours tomorrow ( 55% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.

The coastal trail will take less than 6 hours tomorrow ( 65% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.

The coastal trail will take less than 8 hours tomorrow ( 85% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.

I will NOT get anyone from work or uni sick by the end of the week. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-15; known on 2011-03-22; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01.

Petrol price's average in Sydney won't be below $1.40 (excluding discounts and vouchers) until the end of April ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-20; known on 2011-04-30; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01.

“Fukushima 1 evacuation radius to be 30km or more before midnight ET 30 April 2011” – Intrade ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-01.

There will be a terrorist attack in the UK/Ireland this Friday ( 15% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-04-30; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-30.

The vicar will pronounce William or Kate's name wrong during the Royal Wedding. ( 1% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-04-30; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-30.

My soccer game will be called off this weekend. ( 80% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-04-30; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-04-30.

I will talk to more than 100 people on Saturday ( 65% confidence )

Created by wael on 2011-04-22; known on 2011-04-24; judged right by wael on 2011-04-30.

A student will appear at the TA office for antitrust in the next hour. ( 2% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29; known on 2011-04-29; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.

There'll be 3 ALIEN related reports on the news this month. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-04-29.

Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.

Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.

Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.

Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.

I will have a presentation on Thursday. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-28.

My Car's angels eyes order will come the end of next week! :( too late! ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-21; known on 2011-04-28; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-04-28.

I will be at the library everyday until the mid semester break ( 80% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-05; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by minhduc on 2011-04-28.

i will go to fishing this Easter! ( 80% confidence )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-20; known on 2011-04-27; judged right by nam2001 on 2011-04-27.

David Percival will finish all of the requirements of Ben's studio by week 9 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by puya on 2011-03-23; known on 2011-04-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-27.

Man United won't be able to beat Schalke tonight ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-04-27.

Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste bad for me. ( 40% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.

Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste good for me. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.

Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste so-so for me. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.

I will write on blog 3 times during Easter holiday. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-20; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Eunseo on 2011-04-26.

At least one group member will not show up before 11am tomorrow. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.

Group meeting will finish before 11.30 tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.

At least one group member will not have read the assignment for tomorrow. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.

My diarrhoea will stop tomorrow. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-21; known on 2011-04-22; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-04-23.

There will be more than 4 people in attendance at the Sydney Less Wrong meetup at some point while I'm there. http://bit.ly/dXMiL0 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-22; known on 2011-04-24; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-23.

I will get new mornitor within this week. ( 30% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-18; known on 2011-04-27; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-04-22.

I will go easter show on Friday. ( 99% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-18; known on 2011-04-22; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-04-22.

My sketch design will finish after 3 days? ( 25% confidence )

Created by wael on 2011-04-14; known on 2011-04-18; judged right by wael on 2011-04-22.

Barcelona will win the copa del ray. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by puya on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.

Real Madrid will win Copa del Rey 2010/11 ( 50% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-04-21; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.

Statistics

Judged Predictions