PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will loose weight 2kg before graduation ceremony ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-05-11; known on 2011-05-18; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-05-19.

I'll be the earliest for my meeting tomorrow morning. ( 30% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-15; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-05-18.

'We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.' —Jason Calacanis ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-15.

'We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.' —Jason Calacanis ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 13 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-15.

I will finish The City assignment by Tuesday ( 60% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-17; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-05-17.

I will finish The City assignment by Tuesday ( 60% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-17; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-05-17.

I will finish project management assignment by Monday night. ( 100% confidence )

Created by sailoryoon on 2011-05-11; known on 2011-05-16; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-05-16.

Liverpool will beat Tottenham in Anfield tonight ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-15; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-16.

Sweden will beat Finland in the World Cup final tonight ( 65% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-15; known on 2011-05-16; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-16.

MM Lee's FB fan counts will still surpass Nicole Seah's 1 week after the sg election. ( 100% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-05-05; known on 2011-05-14; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-05-15.

There will 2 constituencies won by the opposition parties in the coming S'pore election. ( 70% confidence )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-16; known on 2011-05-16; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-05-15.

CC Strikers will win their game tomorrow without me playing. ( 50% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-13; known on 2011-05-15; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-05-15.

Barcelona will win the 2010-2011 La Liga title . ( 100% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-06-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-15.

Chelsea will get the Premier League title this season. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-05-28; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-15.

Eric Saade will win Eurovision Song Contest 2011 ( 2% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-05-15; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-15.

more than 10 students will come to my class today ( 45% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-13; known on 2011-05-14; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-14.

More than 5 students will come to my class today ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-13; known on 2011-05-14; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-14.

'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.

'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.

'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.

'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.

I'll be home before 9pm! ( 90% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-12; known on 2011-05-12; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-13.

I'll be home before 9pm! ( 90% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-12; known on 2011-05-12; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-13.

There will be no one at home when Im back! ( 90% confidence )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-12; known on 2011-05-12; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-13.

Eric Saade will proceed to the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2011 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-05-13; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-13.

I will get a 4.0 in my class. ( 96% confidence )

Created by etrecheesecake on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-05-12; judged right by etrecheesecake on 2011-05-12.

FC Barcelona will win La Liga 2010/11 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-05-23; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-12.

David will make his Vancouver connection to Kelowna as scheduled ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by rgoodlad on 2011-05-10; known on 2011-05-11; judged right by rgoodlad on 2011-05-11.

Mervi Tapola will either cancel or let expire her divorce with Matti Nykänen during the six month waiting period. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by mikko on 2010-08-17; known on 2011-02-17; judged right by gwern on 2011-05-11.

The Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-02-23; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-07.

Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.

Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.

Liverpool will win Fulham tomorrow ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-05-09; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-10.

I will get a Credit for Finance & Project Management Assignment 1 ( 65% confidence )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-05-04; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-10.

Chelsea will win Manchester United. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by minhduc on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-05-08; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-09.

Tanjong Pagar will win in the coming SG election for the 11th time. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-05-08; judged right by gwern on 2011-05-08.

Bitcoin >$5/btc in a week —jimrandomh ( 20% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-08.

Matt will submit a physical model at his next presentation ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-05-06; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-08.

AC Milan will win Seria A 2010/11 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-05-23; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-08.

A significant portion of the plot of Kore wa Zombie Desu ka? will be revealed to be a “Dying Dream.” ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-01-22; known on 2011-07-18; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-08.

PatrickRobotham write >=500 words on cantor set searches in Haskell ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-03; known on 2011-05-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-08.

The yes to AV vote will win by a narrow margin ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Jase9r on 2011-04-24; known on 2011-05-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-07.

i will watch fast and furious within this week ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-07; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-05-07.

i will watch fast and furious within this week ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-07; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-05-07.

I will use one of Sydney's temporary open-air urinals within the next month. ( 10% confidence )

Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-05-06; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-05-07.

Man UTD will beat Shalke 04 on semi-final of Champhions League. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by dumun on 2011-04-14; known on 2011-05-05; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-06.

ben will do the first floor of the opt model. ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by puya on 2011-04-17; known on 2011-04-22; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-05.

Statistics

Judged Predictions