Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
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I will win the LW SRS contest. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-01; known on 2011-08-19; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-19.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
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cousin_it is the other vladimir ( 70% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by u_ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-08-18; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-17.
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Barack Obama elected president in 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Solvent on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama elected president in 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Solvent on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
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The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
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I will find a frame at a reasonable price for my large painting. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cadbar on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-08-17; judged wrong by cadbar on 2011-08-17.
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XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-11; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-16.
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MyBitcoin will go back up before 2011-09-04 UTC and allow > 90% of users to withdraw their full balances ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-14.
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“Michele Bachmann to win 2011 Ames Straw Poll” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-08-13; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-13.
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Firefox 6 will build correctly on Windows 7 on my first try (note: FF5 built just fine a few months ago) ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-12; known on 2011-08-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-13.
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I will win the free video tutorial contest I entered today. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-08-06; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-08.
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'America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-07.
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I will win the free video tutorial contest I entered today. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-08-06; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-08.
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Morendil will be accepted by the Good Jugdgement Team. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-05.
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I will be accepted by the Good Judgement Team. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-05.
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There will be another natural disaster somewhere in the world before the end of June. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-05-12; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-08-04.
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The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-02.
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RBA will leave interest rates unchanged at the next meeting ( 55% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-08-02.
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The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-02.
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The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-02.
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Xmonad 1.0 will be released in July. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-01; known on 2011-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-01.
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Olivia will get the promotion to Customer Supervisor position at Qantas. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-07-31.
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“…a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July.” —Jeffrey Goldberg ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-31.
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My entry will win the GitP 28th PrC contest. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-18; known on 2011-07-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-30.
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My last 10 link submissions to anime subreddit will average 1<x<15 karma. ( 15% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-30.
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“Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy.” —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-28.
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My rent will increase in June ( 70% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-08; known on 2011-07-08; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-07-26.
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my next laptop will leave it's former owner and be ready to rebuild today ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26.
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my next laptop will leave it's former owner and be ready to rebuild today ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26.
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my next laptop will leave it's former owner and be ready to rebuild today ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26; known on 2011-07-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-26.
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Cadel Evans will win Tour de France 2011 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-11; known on 2011-07-25; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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Frank Schleck will win Tour de France 2011 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-07-24; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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Uruguay will win Copa America ( 65% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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Thomas Voeckler will win Tour de France 2011 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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Andy Schleck will win Tour de France 2011 ( 10% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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Contador will win Tour de France 2011 ( 10% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-20; known on 2011-07-25; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-25.
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'The fifth book in the “A Song of Ice and Fire” series will be published: 5%' —CronoDAS ( 5% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-07-24.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.