Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
The final flight of space shuttle Atlantis (STS-135) will be completed successfully and will land with no fatalities and no major incidents. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-14; known on 2011-07-23; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
-
Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
-
My SR thread on Bitcoin forums will be deleted or otherwise hidden or suppressed. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-17; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-18.
-
Christine Lagarde will be the next IMF president. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Saliency on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Saliency on 2011-07-11.
-
Sweden will beat Australia in tonights quarterfinal ( 75% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-11.
-
The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $30 a tonne ( 65% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.
-
The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $40 a tonne ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.
-
The initial carbon price announced by the Gillard government will be below $20 a tonne ( 15% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-05; known on 2011-07-10; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-10.
-
papermachine is Chinese or of Chinese descent. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-08; known on 2011-07-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-08.
-
“Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months” —Beth Lynn Eicher ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-07.
-
LW user 'Zed' is Zed Shaw. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2011-07-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-05.
-
Christine Lagarde will be the next IMF president. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Saliency on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Saliency on 2011-07-11.
-
Gaddfi will lose one more son in the next 2 months. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
-
The majority of people will not worship man-made Gods by the year 2030. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dragonfly on 2011-07-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
-
The majority of people will not worship man-made Gods by the year 2030. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dragonfly on 2011-07-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
-
Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
-
Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
-
Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
-
Neither angelina joli nor brad pitt will die in the next 12 months ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2010-04-18; known on 2011-07-02; judged right by Frank on 2011-07-02.
-
Xmonad 1.0 will be released in July. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-01; known on 2011-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-01.
-
Xmonad 1.0 will be released in July. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-01; known on 2011-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-01.
-
Google will be rebuffed in their attempt to acquire the Nortel patents ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kallman on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-01.
-
'Facebook growth slows, they hit 650M users by 4th quarter of 2011' —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-01.
-
Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.
-
Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.
-
The Vic Hotel in Annandale will start serving Bulmers on tap again by Dec 2011. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-31; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-07-01.
-
Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
-
“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
-
Moneyed interests and will become the increasingly dominant force in Iranian politics, while Ahmadinejad will lose influence and the mullahs will become slightly more influential. —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2011-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-27.
-
Tottenham Hotspur will qualify for the Champions League this season. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-27.
-
nevada will be the first state to legalise google driverless car – http://www.caradvice.com.au/118506/google-driverless-car-almost-legal-in-nevada/ ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-23.
-
btc ~$15 in 2 weeks. —cwkoss ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-23.
-
Tiger Woods will not win a major tournament in the year 2011 ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by travis2010 on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-08-15; judged right by niekjetten on 2011-06-21.
-
“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
-
“BP to announce before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
-
Nuclear problems in Japan will be solved at the end of April ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
-
I think that kadaffi will leave for Venuzuela within two months form now (april 15 2011) ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-04-15; known on 2011-06-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-17.
-
I will win $50 in prediction competition at the end of this term. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-09; known on 2011-06-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-06-17.
-
Sandra will win in prediction competition at the end of semester. ( 77% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-06-18; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-06-17.
-
I will not drink any alcohol till final design presentation. ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-05-29; known on 2011-06-15; judged right by Eunseo on 2011-06-17.
-
The crit session will finish after 6pm tomorrow. ( 80% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-06-14; known on 2011-06-15; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-06-16.
-
Egypt will stop the export of natural gas to Israel ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wael on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-16; judged wrong by wael on 2011-06-16.
-
Niklas Eliason will be sentenced to psychiatric care ( 35% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13; known on 2011-06-13; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-15.
-
Niklas Eliasson will be sentenced to 14 years in prison ( 65% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13; known on 2011-06-13; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-15.
-
I will finish elective assignment tonight ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-06-12; known on 2011-06-12; judged wrong by Ye on 2011-06-13.
-
Bitcoin: <$1/btc in 6 weeks —cjb ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-12.
-
Apple will release an iPad with a built-in camera in 2011. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
-
'Apple gives away [Mac OS X] Lion for free or less than $30' —Brian Breslin ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
-
Nintendo to announce successor to Wii in 2011 —Game Informer ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
-
I'll sleep after 5am today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-06-05; known on 2011-06-05; judged right by alvinTng on 2011-06-08.