Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.
-
Bayesian Induction will be proven to be merely a special case of analogical reasoning by 2014 ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-08.
-
The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
One or more persons will be charged with the manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael Jackson before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
-
Sarah Palin is mounting a 2012 presidential campaign ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-07-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-13.
-
Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
-
Google will lose their soul. We'll love them less in the coming years. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2011-05-27; judged wrong by Lina on 2011-05-27.
-
The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.
-
Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.
-
Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 80% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
-
I will not become a theist before the end of 2009. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2009-05-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Pablo on 2009-12-30.
-
Blackburn football club seniors will finish in the final 5 in EFL 2009 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Miyo on 2008-09-30; known on 2009-09-16; judged right by Miyo on 2009-10-17.
-
Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
-
I'll join at least one collegue of mine for lunch today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Drahflow on 2009-10-16; known on 2009-10-16; judged right by Drahflow on 2009-10-16.
-
The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Cyan on 2009-11-10.
-
The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Cyan on 2009-11-10.
-
Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
-
Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
-
Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
World-wide Search-Engine Market-Share: Bing & Microsoft will replace yahoo in the #2 spot for a prolonged period (Minimum of 1 week). ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-22; known on 2009-09-22; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-10-16.
-
The child currently in the runaway balloon will survive ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by Jack on 2009-10-16.
-
The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
-
I will make my flight ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LauraABJ on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-16; judged right by LauraABJ on 2009-10-17.
-
I will make my flight ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LauraABJ on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-16; judged right by LauraABJ on 2009-10-17.
-
I will have puppet configured and in use by the end of next week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jon on 2009-10-05; known on 2009-10-16; judged wrong by jon on 2009-10-16.
-
LW will be running (not live) on AWS hardware this week ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-04; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-10-15.
-
The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
-
The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-27.
-
The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-27.
-
Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.
-
The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
I'll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.
-
General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
-
The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
-
Why The Lucky Stiff will proffer an explanation for his absence in the next year. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2010-10-15.
-
I'll get a full night sleep at least once before the weekend. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-17; judged right by jes5199 on 2009-10-15.
-
There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
This prediction will receive an odd number of wagers before it expires in one hour's time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by UnholySmoke on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-15; judged wrong by faws on 2009-10-22.
-
I'll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.
-
There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
-
The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
-
The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
-
FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged right by Jack on 2009-11-12.
-
FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged right by Jack on 2009-11-12.