Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The release date for Snow Leopard will be announced at WWDC. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-06-08; judged right by Wes on 2009-06-08.
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Third generation iPhone will be announced at WWDC ( 90% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-06-08; judged right by Wes on 2009-06-08.
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Snow Leopard will not feature a redone UI ( 85% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-08-28; judged right by Wes on 2009-06-08.
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Roger Federer will win the French Open. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Philip on 2009-04-24; known on 2009-06-07; judged right by Philip on 2009-06-07.
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That the timing function on prediction book won't be fixed to take account of “local” time in the next 2 days ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by CRobert on 2009-06-04; known on 2009-06-06; judged right by CRobert on 2009-06-07.
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Serena Williams will win the 2009 French Open ( 65% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-31; known on 2009-06-07; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-06.
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this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.
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We will end up chosing the vegetarian degustation menu. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by CRobert on 2009-06-02; known on 2009-05-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-06-04.
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The Palm Pre will be an iPhone killer ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-31; known on 2010-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The Palm Pre will be an iPhone killer ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-31; known on 2010-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Billabong shares will increase by more that 10% within the next 2 months ( 62% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Andy on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-08-01; judged right by Andy on 2009-06-03.
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I will make it home before 7pm tonight ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by CRobert on 2009-06-02; known on 2009-06-02; judged right by CRobert on 2009-06-02.
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bugger… 11999570 = meningioma ( 80% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-10-02; known on 2008-11-16; judged wrong by Lina on 2009-06-01.
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The overall microsoft ad campaign will improve the Vista perception ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lina on 2008-09-20; known on 2009-03-20; judged wrong by crlosg2 on 2009-06-01.
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Susan Boyle will win Britain's Got Talent 2009 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Miyo on 2009-05-25; known on 2009-05-31; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-05-31.
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Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic tonight – Cavs will win ( 60% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-27; known on 2009-05-27; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-27.
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California's Supreme Court will overturn the ban on gay marriage ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26; known on 2009-05-27; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26.
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The sun will rise ( 100% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2009-05-25; known on 2009-05-26; judged right by Andy on 2009-05-26.
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Lakers will take down the Nuggets again tonight. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Bébhinn on 2009-05-26; known on 2009-05-26; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-26.
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Andrew Martin (Miyo's accountant contact) thinks that by May 2009, lots of small to mid size businesses will be for sale ( 80% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2008-11-19; known on 2009-05-25; judged right by Andy on 2009-05-26.
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The safety car will make an appearance at the Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 20% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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Button will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 65% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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A Brawn car will win the 2009 Monaco F1 Grand Prix ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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The Lakers will have the edge at tonight's playoff ( 55% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-23; known on 2009-05-24; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-24.
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Adam Lambert will win American Idol ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-18; known on 2009-05-21; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-21.
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Kris Allen will not win American Idol ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-21; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-21.
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Graph axes will have labels by this Friday ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-22; judged right by dariusp686 on 2009-05-20.
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The LA Lakers will beat the Denver Nuggets tonight ( 70% confidence )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-19; known on 2009-05-20; judged right by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-20.
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Predicting a Celtics victory tonight ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-17; known on 2009-05-18; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2009-05-18.
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An email will be sent to me ( 98% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-05-15; judged right by Wes on 2009-05-15.
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Electrodrive will post 2 new news items a month for the rest of the year ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Lina on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-14.
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There will be 3 significant stock market dips in 2008 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-01; known on 2009-01-01; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-14.
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PBook will become a fun way of sending messages to friends. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-22; known on 2009-01-22; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-14.
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prediction book will go live at predictionbook.com today ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-05-13.
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this will email me at 15:10 and will link to pbook.dev.trike.com.au ( 69% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-13.
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these two machines are the same deployment ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-12; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-12.
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glenn will find this prediction today and tell me if there is any way to search all predictions ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-12; known on 2009-05-13; judged right by Lina on 2009-05-12.
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Creating a prediction in IE7 on XP VM will work ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-05-11; known on 2009-05-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-05-11.
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The result of this coin flip will be heads ( 50% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-05-05; known on 2009-05-05; judged right by scott.arbeitman on 2009-05-05.
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The result of this coin flip will be heads ( 50% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-05-05; known on 2009-05-05; judged right by scott.arbeitman on 2009-05-05.
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I will be in england before podshifter gets restyled. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-19; known on 2009-04-19; judged right by Matt on 2009-04-30.
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Created by dariusp686 on 2009-04-28; known on 2009-04-29; judged right by dariusp686 on 2009-04-28.
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Electrodrive will buy a label printer ( 100% confidence )
Created by th on 2009-02-18; known on 2009-03-18; judged right by Lina on 2009-04-20.
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$3.19 will have been a good buying price for Quiksilver. ( 61% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Andy on 2008-10-10; known on 2009-04-10; judged wrong by Andy on 2009-04-10.
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The overall microsoft ad campaign will improve the Vista perception ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lina on 2008-09-20; known on 2009-03-20; judged wrong by crlosg2 on 2009-06-01.
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The url_mapping file will be completed and delivered to Sanath by 2pm today ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-03-20; known on 2009-03-20; judged right by Wes on 2009-03-20.
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The url_mapping file will be completed and delivered to Sanath by 2pm today ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-03-20; known on 2009-03-20; judged right by Wes on 2009-03-20.
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The url_mapping file will be completed and delivered to Sanath by 2pm today ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-03-20; known on 2009-03-20; judged right by Wes on 2009-03-20.
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Buying index funds today (S&P at 4552) would be a good investment ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by AndyAlterEgo on 2008-09-18; known on 2009-03-18; judged wrong by AndyAlterEgo on 2009-03-18.
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Westpac economist says the ASX will hit 3200 before turning around ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Andy on 2008-11-19; known on 2009-06-19; judged wrong by Andy on 2009-03-02.