Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by uninverted on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-15; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged right by Jack on 2009-11-12.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by uninverted on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-15; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by uninverted on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-15; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.
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The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by uninverted on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-15; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.
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Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.
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Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.
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Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by uninverted on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-15; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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The US Dollar will drop to 1.75 against the Brazilian Real by the end of October 2009. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by marcio on 2009-10-01; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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An announcement will be made before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2009 that 10,000+ additional troops will be sent to Afghanistan ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
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The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by uninverted on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-15; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by uninverted on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-15; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-17.
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I will spend less than 80% of my time at work being purely meta or purely meta-meta (or any purely meta^n) ( 65% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-04; judged right by Glenn on 2009-10-05.
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G's analysis will be submitted to him by Wednesday ( 70% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-09-30; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-30.
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Radiopaedia will be up and running on the staging server by the end of the week ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-02; judged right by Wes on 2009-09-30.
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Pete will have deployed his changes to PlanDeliver by the end of Tuesday ( 85% confidence )
Created by captainpete on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-09-30; judged right by captainpete on 2009-09-29.
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I will be on Oktoberfest saturday ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-26; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-28.
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Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 8 hours ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.
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Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 4 hours ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.
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we will have finished the search filter implementation on Kando by Thursday ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by captainpete on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-27.
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we will have finished the search filter implementation on Kando by Thursday ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by captainpete on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-27.
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Over the next year I will use PBook more than Twitter to update friends on what I'm up to (like that falafel thing) ( 92% confidence )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-22; known on 2009-07-22; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.
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LW will go up (as a demo, not live) on AWS this week ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.
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OB will go live on AWS this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.
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Padding my 100% with almost nonsense predictions will be frowned upon by the less enlightened ( 79% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-24.
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I will learn touch typing and start using it in half of my typing ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tansel on 2009-09-09; known on 2009-09-23; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-24.
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Radiopaedia will go live on or before Wed next week (week beginning 21 Sep) ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Wes on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-24.
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Radiopaedia wont go live tday ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Tom on 2009-09-21.
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I will have written and submitted my Trike profile ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.
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My PB chart (http://bit.ly/nV7rV) will still look very embarrassing at the end of the week. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.
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We will have another Plandeliver client (verbal agreement) by the end of the week ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-21.