Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Politics: South Korea's Democratic Party (Minjoo) to retain its plurality in the National Assembly after 2020 election ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-16; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-16.
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Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2019-01-09; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by lettergram on 2020-04-15.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] any other candidate ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 11% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Joe Biden ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-08; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[US Democratic primary: Wisconsin winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-14.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Bernie Sanders ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kamala Harris ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Cory Booker ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Julián Castro ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kirsten Gillibrand ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Andrew Yang ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Jay Inslee ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Other ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Joe Biden ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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The car is Alex's ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-13; known on 2020-04-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-13.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Joe Biden ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-13.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
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[US Democratic primary: Alaska winner to be] any other candidate ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-13.
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Ben gets reference to “Don't stutter” ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09; known on 2020-04-09; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-12.
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12-17% of the Senate will test positive for corona by April 1st ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daveisright on 2020-03-24; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-04-11.
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13 million people infected with COVID-19 before there's a vaccine available, if any, by mid-June. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by areyouhappy on 2020-04-09; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by gunner1313 on 2020-04-11.
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SPY will stay below 270 this week (before 1pm PT close on Friday 4/6/20) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-04-10; judged wrong by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-11.
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SPY will be no lower than 250 for the rest of this week (Mon 4/6/20 4pm PT – Fri 4/10/20 1pm PT market close). ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-04-10; judged right by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-11.
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[The Economist predicts:] Billie Eilish wins album of the year at the Grammys ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-04-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 37% confidence; 37 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-04-10.
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Ben gets the reference to “Germany”` ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09; known on 2020-04-09; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09.
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“Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field” ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.
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“I can buy an Impossible Burger at a grocery store within a 30 minute walk from my house” ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.