Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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“Pregabalin successfully goes generic and costs less than $100/month on GoodRx.com” ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.
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“No further CRISPR-edited babies born” ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.
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“Nothing more embarassing than Vigano memo happens to Pope Francis” ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.
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The High Court of Australia will grant special leave to appeal from the decision in Pell v The Queen 2019 VSCA 186 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2019-08-24; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-04-09.
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Despite the lockdown in India, COVID-19 cases will continue to rise for another 2 weeks. The lockdown will be extended to the end of April. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by areyouhappy on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-04-08; judged right by areyouhappy on 2020-04-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2020 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-04-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2019 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-04-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-09.
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[Commodities] As of April 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of March 2020 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-04-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-09.
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WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in March 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-07; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-09.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. ( 61% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-20.
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University of Washington Seattle campus cancels at least 10% of its scheduled classes for spring quarter entirely within the first two weeks of scheduled classes. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-03-10; known on 2020-04-15; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-04-08.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. ( 61% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-20.
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ES futures will range between 2575 and 2650 between Mon 4/6/20 4pm PT and market open Tue 4/7/20 6:30am PT. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-04-07; judged wrong by Rob Bednark on 2020-04-07.
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I will finish the BOM before general conference ( 85% confidence )
Created by credunkist on 2020-04-03; known on 2020-04-04; judged right by credunkist on 2020-04-05.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond April 7th ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-03-23; known on 2020-04-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-03.
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Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-04-03.
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India – Coranavirus positive cases at 10000 by 1st April, 2020 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atharva117 on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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Total COVID-19 deaths in South Korea will be less than 100 by August ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50,000 ( 35% confidence; 30 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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World – Opening of Olympic Games delayed beyond end of July. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2020-04-02.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] March ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-04-02.
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Chuukese independence referendum to be held in March 2020 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 4/1 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-04-02.
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Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-04-03.
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estado de excepcion lo quitarán el 1 de abril 2020 ( 75% confidence )
Created by raulquan on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by raulquan on 2020-04-01.
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Health, UK – COVID-2019 cases in the UK exceed 1000 by deadline. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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World – Will one or more cases of COVID-19 be described as plausible or likely to have occurred in North Korea in the BBC by end of month March. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Personal – My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least 4 bottles of any variety of cola from the order. Dr Pepper counts. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Personal – My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least two packets of pasta of any variety. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Business, UK – Tesco cease to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, by end of March. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Business, UK – Tesco continue to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, but on checking on the 31st of March, there are no available slots on or before the 14th of April. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-03-31; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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UK is still, and has continuously been, a full member state of EU during this prediction. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-12-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-31.
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More than 1000 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 36% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-20; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-03-31.
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Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-04-03.
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Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-04-03.
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On March 26th 2020 the states of California, Pennsylvania, Washington, Ohio, and Maryland will be quarantined, with smaller areas within on fenced lock down. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AgentAri on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-03-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-29.
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Turkey to have announced withdrawal from NATO ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-29.
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Health, UK – Government issues general advice to cancel all events over a certain size at any point before deadline. Still counts if there are provisos like “where possible” or “unless unavoidable” attached. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-28.
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Politics, UK – UK government announces additional measures to support the self-employed by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-03-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-28.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for February 2020 to exceed 110 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-03-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-27.
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China will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW before the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-03-23.
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Fed Fund Rate range will be in 0-25bps after July FOMC meeting. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-03-21.
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Federal Reserve cuts Fed Fund Rate range to 0-25bps by end of 2020 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-03-21.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by June 1, 2020 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by May 1, 2020 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by April 1, 2020 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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swinging, swinging ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-03-21; judged right by playablecharacter on 2020-03-21.
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More than 100 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-16; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-03-21.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-03-20.
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Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2019-07-12; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-03-19.