PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-19.

[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-19.

[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-19.

[Personal] I will read at least 16 books in 2020 Q1 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-18.

[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.

[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.

[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.

[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.

[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.

[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.

[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.

[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.

[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.

[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.

[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Joe Biden ( 37% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-18.

“Polls show more people support the leading Democrat than the leading Republican” ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2020-03-17.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.

[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 1 to 10 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.

[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK out of EU ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.

H7N9 will become pandemic by March 15, 2020. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-15; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-03-15.

[The Economist predicts:] 'Parasite' wins best picture at the Oscars ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-03-15.

Trump has the coronavirus ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-03-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-03-15.

Effective Altruism – EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-03-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-14.

Doomslayer from Doom is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by Medea on 2020-03-13.

Steve from Minecraft is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-15; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-08-18.

[Commodities] As of March 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of February 2020 ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-03-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-13.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.

[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2019 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] January 2020 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.

[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] any other candidate ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )