Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May. ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-05-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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The car outside is my papa john’s delivery ( 70% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-05-28; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-28.
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All 4 other invited people will come to the party tomorrow ( 65% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-26; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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Business, US – By deadline, news has come out to the effect that Elon Musk's baby is not legally named “X Æ A-12”. This includes but is not limited to statements by either Elon Musk or Grimes to that effect, even if later contradicted again. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-06; known on 2020-07-06; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-05-25.
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T will come to the party tomorrow ( 40% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-26; judged wrong by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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Vlad and Valerie will kiss by the end of the episode ( 60% confidence )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-25; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for April 2020 to exceed 110 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-05-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-25.
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Jon will not ask me to play CoD tonight ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-05-25; judged right by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25.
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I have no idea ( 50% confidence )
Created by Humuani on 2020-05-24; known on 2020-05-25; judged right by Humuani on 2020-05-24.
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Personal – I weigh in below 67kg by the end of May. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-22.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish making Anki cards for and reading chapters 5 and 6 of “An Introduction to Godel's Theorems” by the end of the 23rd of May. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-05-24; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-22.
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Under the current Conservative Party government: the UK will not leave the EU and the Human Rights Act will not be scrapped. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nachlader on 2015-07-16; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2020-05-18.
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Under the current Conservative Party government: the UK will not leave the EU and the Human Rights Act will not be scrapped. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nachlader on 2015-07-16; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 11 to 20 ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 21 to 30 ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 21 to 30 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Joe Biden ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[Commodities] As of May 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of April 2020 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-05-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[Politics] Hassan Rouhani to be president of Iran as of 2020-05-12 ( 91% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-05-13; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[Politics] US government to announce ban on Chinese messaging, ecommerce, or web service such as WeChat, JD, Alibaba, Made-in-China, or Baidu as part of trade dispute—including conditional or postponed bans ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-05-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-02; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-05-17.
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Politics, UK – Government announces quarantine of newly arrived air passengers by end of May. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-15.
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“Glasses” computing devices (peripheral or standalone – example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2020-05-15.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Belgium has formed a federal government ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-05-26; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-05-11.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2020 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-09.
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Starhopper SN 4 test article will pass cryo pressure test ( 50% confidence )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-04-27; judged right by evand on 2020-05-09.
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Kindergartens in Germany will open again in April ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-08.
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Google will announce its involvement in creating charter cities and/or ZEDEs sometime within the next five years, and a post on this topic will get 300+ upvotes on /r/anarcho_capitalism. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-05-08; known on 2020-05-08; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2020-05-08.
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The Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-05-08.
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I will join the SB hackathon ( 80% confidence )
Created by Noa Nabeshima on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-01-30; judged right by Noa Nabeshima on 2020-05-07.
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in four months, the consensus among the national security community will be that we (i.e., the US) are not any more meaningfully said to be “at war” with Iran than we are now on 5 Jan 2020. ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-06.
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[Fighting] Official cross-promotional bout involving UFC fighter in the next year ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be released to the public ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be obtained by the House or Senate ( 50% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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Alex isn't home ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-05; known on 2020-05-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-05.
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Tesla stock trades below $150 on or before 2 May 2020 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2020-05-02; judged wrong by separo on 2020-05-03.