Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[Fighting] Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov to fight in April 2020 ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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Schools in Germany will open again in April ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-05-02.
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Remdesivir approved by the FDA by the end of July 2020 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-18; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-05-02.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 3rd ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-04; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02.
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Boris Johnson dies by end of April 2020 (due to Coronavirus) ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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a bill passes and is signed into law to add more money to the SBA PPP program in 2020 before 1am on June 1, 2020 ET ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Contingent on more money being added to the PPP program, that money will be available for 501c3 non-profits ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Rethink Charity gets SBA PPP program money in 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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More money is added to the SBA PPP program in 2020 ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Politics, UK – Government says restaurants may reopen for sit-in service before end of April. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. ( 61% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-20.
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Bitcoin's price will be above $10,000 on May 1, 2020 (at midnight). ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2019-10-20; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2020-05-01.
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Sweden to have a stay-at-home lockdown by the end of April ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-05-01.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. ( 61% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-20.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. ( 61% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-20.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. ( 61% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-20.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >10000 by the end of April. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-05-01.
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Scientific consensus that EM drive works in 5 years. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-05-01.
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Will take the US [at least] until May to get back under 1000 deaths a day again ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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Germany makes face masks mandatory (at least in certain places) in April ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-30; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 5/1 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-05-01.
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Politics, UK – UK government announces, before the end of April, it will bring forward payments under “(COVID-19) Self-employment Income Support Scheme” to earlier than June, or introduce an additional scheme helping the self-employed. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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Politics, UK – Government introduces a government managed rationing system for any consumer good before end of April. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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Health, UK – UK government amends lockdown rules to put a specific numeric upper limit on distance travelled from home during exercise before end of April. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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April 2020 VIX call at 65 will be in the money ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-04-30; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-05-01.
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[Fighting] Brock Lesnar to fight Daniel Cormier in an official MMA bout by 2020-04-26 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2020-04-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-26.
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[Libya: As of 2020-04-25] US government to recognize the Government of National Accord ( 80% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known on 2020-04-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-26.
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[Libya: As of 2020-04-25] EU to recognize the Government of National Accord ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known on 2020-04-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-26.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for March 2020 to exceed 110 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-04-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-23.
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By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2020-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-21.
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The day on day increase people tested positive for COVID19 in South Africa will on average be > 20% at least until 100,000 people have tested positive ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo on 2020-03-24; known on 2020-04-20; judged wrong by moyamo on 2020-04-21.
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Before 2020, there'll be a news story about Google/FB/Amazon or other multibillion dollar public tech company employee being a government (US or foreign) mole. ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-06-18; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-21.
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One or more current SSRI or SNRI (includes newer generation serotonergics like Viibrid) becomes under investigation by FDA for misrepresentation of clinical trial results before 2020. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-21.
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Wikileaks get shame-labelled as fake news by NSA/Facebook ( 69% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-21.
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“the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth.” —Michael Vassar ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-21.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. ( 61% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-20.
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10Y Treasury yield goes above 2% in Q1 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-03-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-04-19.
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Politics – Turkish military forces engage in conflict with Syrian, Russian, or Syrian government-allied militia forces inside Syria by deadline. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-19.
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Academia, UK – Dr Jeremy Morris resigns or otherwise leaves their position as master of Trinity Hall, Cambridge by deadline. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-19.
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German schools open again after easter holidays ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-18; known on 2020-04-18; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-04-18.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >3000 by the end of April. ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-04-18.
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Politics – Either the US or the Taliban have declared the deal of end of February 2020 as no longer in effect by deadline. Complaints which do not amount to announcing the failure/cancellation/own intent to indefinitely renege on the deal do not qualify. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-18.
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UVXY will hit $65 again by April 17th ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by bradleybossard on 2020-04-07; known on 2020-04-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-18.
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Universal basic income will be an issue that comes up in the US 2020 election TV debates (primary or presidential) ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Oliver Carefull on 2016-10-20; known on 2020-04-16; judged right by sole21000 on 2020-04-17.
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By April 17, 2020, scientific consensus will still not accept to any substantial degree Paramahamsa Tewari's proposed “over-unity” device. ( 99% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-18; known on 2020-04-17; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-17.