Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Politics UK – The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full by end of May. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics UK – The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full or amended by end of May. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics UK – The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full or amended by end of May. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, UK – “The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (4)” requirement to close premises and businesses is revoked or amended, or the list of affected businesses in Schedule 2 is amended, by end of May. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 31st. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, India – Dr Sudhakar Rao released from mental hospital by end of May. ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish reading and making Anki cards for four more MIRI papers by end of May 2020. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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[Fighting] Alexander Gustafsson to fight again by 2020-06-06 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-06-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] to be canceled/banned ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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A US Navy vessel to sink or be destroyed in the Persian/Arab Gulf by May 2020 EOM ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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US military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets by May 2020 EOM ( 27% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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[Politics] Iran and US to establish formal diplomatic relations by May 2020 EOM ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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Freeman Dyson to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
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Arivale (new Leroy Hood startup) will have 10,000 participants by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
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John Paul Stevens to become a centenarian ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05.
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[Hong Kong's 2020 Tiananmen Square Incident commemoration vigil] attendance to exceed that of 2019, conditional on vigil being held ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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>1000 tons of oil spills between May 1st 2020 and May 1st 2021. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2020-04-21; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2020-06-04.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 11 to 20 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 21 to 30 ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 21 to 30 ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 11 to 20 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 21 to 30 ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 11 to 20 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Joe Biden ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Cory Booker ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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[US Democratic primary: Montana winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-03.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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Jimmy Carter to become the longest-living president in US History ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2018-03-16; judged right by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 6/1 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-06-02.
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Germanys Corona-Warn-App has a release in May ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-06-01.
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Face masks as fashion accessoir becomes a thing this year ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-12-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-01.
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US Corona-virus lock downs will end in May ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gunner1313 on 2020-04-11; known on 2020-04-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-01.
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One or more members of predictionbook acknowledges that excluding features with statistically significant coefficients when constructing statistical models is a form pseudo-rationality, and admits below to being guilty of this. ( 45% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-22; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-01.
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Tesla stock (TSLA) will top $500/share some time in 2020. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-06-01.
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Liverpool will win the treble in 2020: FA Cup, Premier League, Champions League ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-05-31; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-06-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I exercise by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-31; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-31.
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[Personal] I will read at least 32 books in 2020 H1 ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-29.
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Politics, US – One or more police officers arrested or has a case brought to a grand jury in connection with death of George Floyd by end of June 2020. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-29.
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Arab Spring 2: The Springening. “Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest” Denis Diderot (1713-1784) The final days of the last monarchies on earth. All the Arab monarchs will be violently overthr ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2020-05-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May, and successfully delivers them to the ISS. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-05-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.