Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[For coronavirus 2019] Fear will subside by June 15th, 2020. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lazarus on 2020-03-05; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-18.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 17% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by skuthus on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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Hezbollah disbanded by 2020 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-09-19; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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I will continue to use Emacs, StumpWM & Screen as my primary workflow for four more years ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by ejlflop on 2020-06-16.
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The picture of the penis-shaped Christian Science church in Dixon (IL) with the bursting water pipe is doctored. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2020-06-14; known on 2020-06-14; judged right by Leo on 2020-06-14.
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The guest for The Joe Rogan Experience podcast episode #1488 will be politically left-of-center or anti-politics. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by AndreBaptiste on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-05-29; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-06-13.
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[Top Chef will be won by] Kevin ( 30% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-06-19; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-06-12.
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80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 4 MMbpd ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Commodities] Venezuela will produce 0 crude oil in at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 3 MMbpd ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 2 MMbpd ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 1 MMbpd ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2020 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Joe Biden ( 40% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] any other candidate ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Joe Biden ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Cory Booker ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: West Virginia winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of May 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2020 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-08.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Politics, US – Officers placed on unpaid leave in Buffalo, in relation to the hospitalisation of a 75-year old man, are criminally charged in relation to this action by end of June. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Personal – I weigh in at or below 70kg at least once before start of 2020-07-01. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, UK – Court action for evictions is suspended further beyond the 25th of June. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-06-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, UK – More than 50% of the UK's schools are open on the 1st of June 2020 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 350 on a single day in May 2020. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 250 on a single day in May 2020. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.